We're Running Out of Doctors in the U.S.

WHAT'S UP, DOC? Recent surveys of TYPE OF PRIMARY-CARE DISCIPLINE THEY THE DOCTOR WANT TO PURSUE A CAREER IN 32% GRADUATING FAMILY MEDICINE INTERNAL MEDICINE PEDIATRICS Waning Interest in the Career PRIMARY CARE Only 32 percent of physicians in the U.S. are primary-care providers. The rest are specialists in careers like radiology, cardiology, and dermatology. MEDICAL SCHOOL SENIORS SHOW THAT IS NOT IN HK ONLY A SMALL FRACTION 17% 3% 2.7% 68% WANT TO GO TO GO INTO Why Is There a Shortage of Primary-Care Physicians in the U.S.? SPECIALISTS PRIMARY-CARE MEDICINE. (Percent of surveyed students) Income Disparity Primary-care physicians-those who cover comprehensive health needs and provide continuing care for their patients-were once the foundation of a high-value American health care system. But now there is a looming deficit of the very professionals who health care reform depends on. Why may primary-care doctors soon become an endangered breed? A Medscape report found that 54 percent of primary-care physicians don't feel fairly compensated and are, on average, paid less than those that specialize. As a result, less choose primary care as a career. AVERAGE SALARY (2011) $350,000 $315,000 $315,000 $314,000 $309,000 $309,000 SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND THE FUTURE DECLINE OF PRIMARY CARE DOCTORS $295.000 $300,000 $283,000 $270,000 $250,000 $237,000 $221,000 $220,000 The Association of American Medical Colleges projects that by 2015, the country will be close to 63,000 doctors short of the demand necessary to provide valuable medical care for its population. By 2025, that number could more than double. I SUPPLY OF PHYSICIANS* $200,000 $184,000 $170,000 $168,000 $165,000 $158,000 $156,000 I DEMAND OF PHYSICIANS* II $150,000 1,000,000 916,000 $100,000 851,300 798,500 800,000i 723,400 $50,000 759,800 785,400 735,600 709,700 600,000: (Projected) RADIOLOGY UROLOGY ONCOLOGY DERMATOLOGY PLASTIC SURGERY PATHOLOGY OBSTETRICS/ CARDIOLOGY EMERGENCY NEUROLOGY PSYCHIATRY DIABETES INTERNAL FAMILY PEDIATRICS ORTHOPEDICS ANESTHESIOLOGY MEDICINE GYNECOLOGY MEDICINE MEDICINE 400,000 -. 2010 2015 2020 2025 *OF ALL SPECIALTIES Looming Baby Boomer Wave Retirees The percent of people in the U.S. over age 65 is expected to nearly double between 2000 and 2050. As they age, this senior population is more likely to develop multiple chronic conditions and will have to be cared for by primary-care physicians who specialize in long-term health management. Although physicians of all specialties will be needed, primary-care physicians-including family doctors, general practitioners, and pediatricians-will be seeing a considerable shortage in the coming years. ALMOST 25% OF PRIMARY-CARE DOCTORS ARE 56 OR OLDER. PERCENT OF THE U.S. POPULATION WHO ARE 65+ CNP GROWING DEFICIT OF PRIMARY-CARE PHYSICIANS 25% KIRWO 19% 20% 20% 20% 16% 80,000 (Projected) 65,800 13% AND IT'S LIKELY THAT MANY OF THESE PHYSICIANS WILL RETIRE WITHIN THE NEXT DECADE. 12% 15% 60,000 45,400 40,000 29,800 10% 20,000 (Projected) – 9,000 5% 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 SOURCES: ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN MEDICAL COLLEGES, KAISER HEALTH NEWS, MEDSCAPE, ADMINISTRATION ON AGING, AMERICAN ACADEMY OF FAMILY PHYSICIANS, COUNCIL ON GRADUATE MEDICAL EDUCATION A COLLABORATION BETWEEN GOOD AND COLUMN FIVE