Tajikistan - GDP growth by sector, Monthly inflation
Tajikistan achieved robust growth of 7.5%, slightly above the 7.4%
recorded in 2011, mainly reflecting strong domestic demand from
record-high remittances, which equal about half of GDP (Figure 3.6.1)...
Meanwhile, domestic income and investment remained critically low.
On the supply side, services remained the main driver of
economic growth, expanding by 14.5% and led by retail trade, which
grew by 17.1%. Construction, industry, and agriculture also grew, but at
more modest rates. Industry expanded by 10.4%, backed by continued
growth in mining and light processing. Textiles grew by 30%, as weak
external demand and lower international prices for cotton prompted
firms to focus on local processing. Aluminum production grew by a
modest 0.7%, constrained by aging technology and a reduced supply of
natural gas from Uzbekistan, and discouraged by lower international
prices. Agriculture grew by 10.4%, largely because of strong growth
in agricultural processing. However, cotton production grew by only
0.5%, as sharp fluctuations in cotton prices discouraged farmers from
following through on initial expansions in planted area. Despite slow
growth, aluminum and cotton still represented 58% of total output,
down from 70% in 2008.
On the demand side, consumption was the main driver of growth.
Higher spending for social services, human development, and social
protection raised private consumption, while increased outlays for
education and health care boosted public consumption. However, public
investment including outlays by state enterprises declined as investment
in energy, transport, and communication fell by 20.2%. Private investment
grew by only 1.0%, and the share of private investment in GDP remained
below 5%. Despite the government’s continued efforts to improve the
investment climate, serious impediments such as an inefficient tax system,
the high cost of financing, and weak property rights have kept private
investment and income low.
Inflation slowed to 5.8% from 12.5% in 2011 (Figure 3.6.2). Food prices
rose by only 3.5%, despite a sharp jump in wheat and flour prices caused by a drought in Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation. Inflationary
pressures came mainly from services, where prices rose by 12.9%.
Sources : National Bank of Tajikistan http://www.nbt.tj/en/ - International Monetary Fund; Tajikistan State Statistics Agency. http://www.stat.tj (accessed 15 March
2013); ADB estimates