Visual Capitalist Market Intelligence: December

MARKET INTELLIGENCE DECEMBER 2012 VISUAL CAPITALIST THE MARKETS Month-to-month October to November 2012 +3 +2 ABOUT VC MARKET INTELLIGENCE O+1.1% Nasdaq O +0.28% S&P 500 Ô -0.54% Dow Jones O -1.5% TSX +1 The goal of this monthly infographic is to provide a big picture snapshot of market signals, commodity trends, and economic indicators in -1 -2 -3 -4 an intuitive and visual way. -5- -6- O -7.1% TSX-V -7 MONTHLY TECHNICAL HIGHLIGHTS MARKET COMMENTARY It is interesting to see the same technical setup occur now ahead of the "fiscal cliff" event, as occurred ahead of the "debt ceiling" event in the summer of 2011. BEARISH SILVER LINING Intermediate term (1-3 months) ASSET ADVISORS A closer look at the S&P 500 Market commentary provided by Jeremy Salsburg of Silver Lining Asset Advisors. 561-948-3414 x101 PPO (6,12,9) [email protected] The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) measures the difference between two moving averages as a percentage of the larger moving average. Momentum signals are generated with signal line crossovers, centerline crossovers, and divergences. PPO Signal Histogram N OBSERVATIONS 1 Higher Highs -3 2 Divergent lower highs in the PPO 1450 SPX (weekly) 1400 40 week moving average 1350 1300 3 Countertrend rally over last two weeks that mirrors week of June 2011 1250 1200 1150 If the 40 week moving average fails as support, the outlook is fully bearish in the intermediate term for $SPX 1100 1050 1000 D 10 F MAMIJASOoN D 11 F MAM JJA SOND 12 EMAMJJASOND Prior to Debt Ceiling increase Prior to 'Fiscal Cliff A closer look at the TSX PPO (6,12,9) PPO Signal Histogram m OBSERVATIONS TSX (weekly) 14000 13750 40 week moving average 13500 13250 13000 12750 12500 TSX shows opposite divergence to S&P 500. Index makes lower highs while the PPO makes higher highs. 12250 12000 11750 11500 11250 11000 10750 D'10 F MAM JJA S ON D 11 FMAM J JASOND 12 F MAMJIASOND TSX / SPX ratio The ratio between the TSX and S&P 500 positively crossed the 20 week exponential moving average. The TSX is the cheapest compared to the 5&P 500 in the 2nd half of 2012 as it has been in the last 3 vears 11.0 10.5 10.0 95 9.0 85 D 10 F MAMIJASON D 11 F MAM JJA SOND 12 FMAMJ ASOND MARKET DASHBOARD ECONOMIC INDICATORS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 7.9% TUNITED STATES Understanding VC Market Intelligence MONEY SUPPLY M2 10.25 VIX VOLATILITY INDEX 16.70 52 WEEK HIGH IN TRILLIONS 52 WEEK HIGH 1 CURRENT PREVIOUS MONTH 52 WEEK LOw PREVIOUS MONTH THIS MONTH 52 WEEK LOw CPI U 231.75 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX 52 WEEK HIGH CI RETAIL SALES PMI HIGHLIGHT PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX GROWTH VS PREV QUARTER In November, US Consumer Confidence reached the 73.7 $368.79 54.8 $368.79 1 73.7 highest point in 4.5 years. $367.56 73.1 GDP GROWTH 51.7 Q3 – 2012 1 2.7% 49.5 61.3 $355.62 49.5 Q2 - 2012 1.3% EUROZONE CANADA CHINA PMI GDP UNEMPLOYMENT 53 3.00% Current Previous 2.75% 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 1.75% 1.50% 52 EUROZONE 10.6% 9.8% 51 2.2% 50.44 50.5 1 50 CANADA 7.4% 7.4% 49 Current 1.25% 1.00 0.75% 0.50% 0.25% 0.00% -0.25% 48 героrt 47 46.2 46 CHINA* O 48.7 49.2 Year 45 -0.1% 1 0.1% 44 *Employed Person Index In November, China's manufacturing sector expanded for the first time in 13 months. THE POTENTIAL OF ALBERTA'S SHALE A new resource estimate conducted by Alberta Energy Resources Conservation Board and Alberta Geological Survey puts Alberta's shale resources at: OIL NATURAL GAS NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS 423.6 3,324 58.6 BILLION BARRELS TCF (617 BILLION BOE) BILLION BOE While it is unknown how much of the reserves can be recovered due to social, environmental, economic, and technological factors, the initial resource estimate compares favourably with other large North American shale plays like the Marcellus formation. ALBERTA SHALE RESOURCE GAS-IN-PLACE ESTIMATE MARCELLUS FORMATION GAS-IN-PLACE ESTIMATE 1500 TCF UNPROVED TECHNICALLY RECOVERABLE RESOURCE ESTIMATE: 141 TCF 3324 TCF COMMODITY TRENDS Percentage change from last month 10 COMMODITY AV. PRICE AU GOLD (oz) AG SILVER (oz) PT PLATINUM (oz) $1721.14 $32.77 $1576.36 OIL OIL (WTI) GAS NAT. GAS (HENRY HUB) $3.53 U URANIUM (LB) $86.38 $42.25 GAS FE AG AU OIL PT CU AL $120.96 $3.49 $0.88 FE IRON ORE FINES -1 CU COPPER (LB) AL ALUMINUM (LB) -2 -3 -5 -6 -7 -8 -10 VISUAL CAPITALIST For more information on investing and commodities, visit us at: visualcapitalist.com 4.