VC Market Intelligence - March 2013

MARKET INTELLIGENCE MARCH 2013 VISUAL CAPITALIST ABOUT VC MARKET INTELLIGENCE The goal of this monthly infographic is to provide a big picture snapshot of market signals, commodity trends, and economic indicators in an intuitive and visual way. MARKET TRENDS MONTH-TO-MONTH FEBRUARY 2013 VS PREVIOUS MONTH +3 +2 O +1.40% Dow Jones O +1.11% S&P 500 O +0.63% TSX O -0.09% Nasdaq +1 The major US markets continued their steady rise with the DJIA clos- ing at an all-time high (March 8th). -1 -2 -3 -4 The TSX-V continued to -5 struggle in February. -6 -7 -7.69% TSX-V MONTHLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 66 MARKET COMMENTARY March will be critical to watch. By Jeremy Salsburg NEUTRAL SILVER LINING Intermediate term (1-3 months) ASSET ADVISORS A closer look at the S&P 500 Market commentary provided by Jeremy Salsburg of Silver Lining Asset Advisors, LLC This move higher in stocks now looks to have broken higher above the top channel line O of the rising wedge, so we'll probably see higher highs over March. It could result in a triple top for the SPX around 1560, or we could keep heading higher throughout the year. March will be critical to watch. 561-948-3414 x10 [email protected] 1551.18 1500 -1450 SPX (weekly) 1400 50 week moving average -1350 -1300 1250 1200 - 1150 - 1100 - 1050 1000 MAMJ JASON D 11 F MAM IJASON D 12 F MAMJIA SOND 13 F M Prior to Debt Ceiling increase Prior to 'Fiscal Cliff 40 20 -20 -40 PPO (6,12,9) The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) measures the difference between two moving averages as a percentage of the larger moving average. Momentum signals are generated with signal line crossovers, centerline crossovers, and divergences. PPO Signal Histogram WHAT'S NEXT FOR GOLD? $1800 THE GOLD PRICE On Feb 20th, gold reached a 6 month low and has gone sideways since. $1750 SEPT 2012 $1700 NOV 2012 $1650 JAN 2013 REAL INTEREST RATES $1600 MAR 2013 3% > VS GOLD PRICE < $1483 Real interest rates had been dropping for most of gold's rise, but since late 2012 they have been creeping up. 1% > $1122 0% > More people opt to own gold when real interest on curren- cies are lovw. -1% ► $400 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 THE DEATH CROSS The "death cross" is a negative technical indicator that alludes to the 50-day moving average dipping below the 200-day moving average. In late February, this happened with the gold price. GOLD PRICE <$1700 <$1680 4$1660 <$1640 A$1620 <$1600 A$1580 «$1560 OCT 12 DEC 12 MAR 13 50 day moving average 200 day moving average COUNTERPOINT The "death cross" over history has actually been a false indicator for gold since 1972. 1 MONTH 2 MONTH 3 MONTH RETURN RETURN 6 MONTH RETURN RETURN 1.29% 1.08% 2.75% 3.17% IN CONCLUSION While there are some bearish signs for gold in the market, ultimately everything will depend on whether the apparent US economic recovery is true. The Dow is at an all-time high, but market sentiment doesn't seem to match. MARKET DASHBOARD ECONOMIC INDICATORS 7.7% O UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNITED STATES Understanding VC Market Intelligence MONEY SUPPLY M2 10.42 VIX VOLATILITY INDEX 14.07 52 WEEK HIGH IN TRILLIONS 52 WEEK HIGH 1 CURRENT PREVIOUS MONTH 52 WEEK LOW PREVIOUS MONTH THIS MONTH 230.28 CPI CONSUMER PRICE INDEX 52 WEEK LOW 52 WEEK HIGH GDP GROWTH CI RETAIL SALES PMI Q4 – 2012 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX GROWTH VS PREV QUARTER PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX -0.1% 73.1 $370.92 54.2 $370.92 1 54.2 Q3 - 2012 3.1% 1 69.6 $370.12 53.1 HIGHLIGHT Consumer confidence rebounds from January's 58.6 52-week low of 58.6 to 69.6 58.6 $356.96 49.9 EUROZONE CANADA CHINA NOTE: Eurozone / Euro Area only refers to the 17 countries using the euro PMI GDP UNEMPLOYMENT 53.6 1 2.0% + 1.80% 1.60% 1.40% 1.20 1.00% 53 Current Previous 52 EUROZONE 11.9% 11.7% 51 50.10 50 0.80% CANADA 7.0% 7.0% 49 0.60% irent 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% 47.9 48 47 0.1% repor -0.1% 1 46 -0.20% -0.30% CHINA* O 47.6 47.8 Year 45 -0.40% -0.50% Q3 2012 Q3 2012 04 2012 *Employed Person Index COMMODITY TRENDS Percentage change from last month 10% COMMODITY AV. PRICE AU GOLD (oz) AG SILVER (oz) PT PLATINUM (oz) PD PALLADIUM (oz) $1627.59 $30.33 $1674.55 $751.92 6% 5% 4% 3% $95.31 OIL OIL (WTI) GAS NAT. GAS (HENRY HUB) $3.33 U URANIUM (LB) 2% 1% PD PT AL OIL GAS $42.00 AG AU -1% CU COPPER (LB) AL ALUMINUM (LB) $3.66 $0.93 -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -9% -10% VISUAL CAPITALIST For more information on investing and commodities, visit us at: visualcapitalist.com