Examining The Real Cost of Donald Trump's Wall

MAKE AMERICA MP TP GREAT AGAIN EXAMINING THE REAL COST OF DONALD TRUMP'S WALL From the start of his Republican and presidential campaign, Donald Trump has promoted a xenophobic immigration policy, declaring that Mexico has brought 'criminals', 'killers', 'drug dealers' and 'rapists' to the US. To remedy the situation, Trump has suggested building a wall along the US - Mexico border, for which he would force Mexico to pay the costs. Trump's wall has been a fundamental element of his campaign, garnishing a huge amount of support from the Republican electorate. But how feasible is this wall? What are the real costs and logistics of such a mammoth construction project? Trump's Proposal Donald Trump has suggested his wall would be 1,000 - 2,000 miles long. His estimates have varied throughout his campaign to date. The wall would run along the US border with Mexico: UNITE D STATES The Trump Wall RIO GRANDE Natural borders like this mean the wall MEXIC0 would not need to run the full 2,000m The border between the US and Mexico is 1,989m (3,200km), but Trump has suggested that the wall wouldn't need to be this long, thanks to natural borders such as the Rio Grande. As a result, he has altered his plans to make the wall 1,000m long. According to Donald Trump, the wall would meet the following specifications: Length Given the natural barriers, the wall would be 1,000 miles long Trump's Wall 1,000m Great Wall of China 5,500m Height Trump Qut Trump has suggested that his wall would be 35 feet high Trump's Wall 35ft Great Wall of China 25ft In February 2016, Trump estimated it would cost $8 billion to build his wall. In March, Trump amended this, saying it would cost $10-12 billion. Are Trump's cost estimates accurate? Although Trump does have expertise in construction, critics have cast doubt over his cost estimates. Let's look at how much the wall could really cost... We suspect that Trump's initial calculation came from Israel's experience with building a separation barrier between Israeli-held areas and Palestinian-held areas: The cost to Israel For the first 326 miles (525km), the cost of the Israel-Palestine wall was $2.6 billion. Expanding this to 1,000 miles yields a calculation of $7.99 billion, which could well be where Trump got his initial estimate of $8 billion. SYRIA Israel-Palestine Wall However, only the minority of the Israel wall is concrete, the rest of it is a six-foot electronic fence: Concrete wall 10% Electronic fence 90% ISRA EL It has been estimated that the 33 miles of wall in Israel cost approximately $1.4 billion of the total. Scaling up, this would put the actual cost of Trump's wall at around $42 billion*. JORDAN EGYPT *This is for a 25ft high wall, Trump wants a wall that's at least 35ft high. Moving away from the Israel example, commentators have attempted to analyse how much the wall would actually cost in the United States. To build a 1,000 mile concrete wall, you would have to factor in the cost of: CONCRETE CEMENT STEEL LABOUR BUYING LAND MAINTENANCE Factoring in the cost of materials and labour, conservative estimates from the US suggest it would cost at least: $15-25 billion not including land acquisition or upkeep of the wall once it's built Do Americans support the idea of Trump's wall? Many see the popularity of Donald Trump and the support for his policies as indicative of a rise in anti- immigration sentiment in the United States. However, the numbers suggest that this isn't the case in general: Which comes closer to your view? Immigrants today... (%) burden the country by taking jobs, housing, health care strengthen the country through hard work, talents 63 59 33 31 1994 2000 2006 2012 2016 Despite this general opinion, there is a wide partisan gap when it comes to views on the impact of immigrants in the US. Looking at the opinion of Democrats (or Democrat lean) and Republicans (or Republican lean) % who say that immigrants today strengthen the country because of their hard work and talents: Republican / Republican lean 78 Democrat / Democrat lean 32 35 30 1994 2000 2006 2012 2016 So what about Trump's wall? As you might expect, support mainly comes from Republicans, but there is a surprising amount of support from backers of other candidates and political parties: % of registered votes who favour building a wall along the border with Mexico Candidate supporters who favour building the wall Clinton 15% Trump 84% Sanders 38% All US voters Cruz 64% Kasich 45% By political party Democrat 13% Republican 67% Will Mexico pay for Trump's wall? Trump has made it clear that he would expect Mexico to pay for the wall, which the current President of Mexico has categorically said they will not do. However, Trump could force Mexico - or its people - to pay for his wall. He has suggested that Mexico should make a one-off payment of $5-10 billion towards the wall - if they were to refuse, he has claimed the following would be used to raise the necessary funds from the Mexican economy: %24 VISA VISA The prevention of money transfers from US to Mexico Increased fees on all border crossing cards issued to Mexicans Increased fees on Increased fees on Increased fees at all temporary visas issued to Mexicans all NAFTA working visas from Mexico ports of entry to the US from Mexico So if Trump is to build his wall it could be the Mexican people - not the government - who end up paying for it. Would Trump follow through and actually build the wall if he was elected? Would Trump actually build his wall as POTUS, or is it just a ploy to earn votes from an angry segment of the electorate? Many don't believe he would follow through with his pledge, even a large chunk of his own supporters... % of Trump supporters who believe he will: Build the wall on the US/Mexico border 66% Deport millions of undocumented immigrants 51% Ban foreign Muslims from entering the US 58% Many suggest that Trump would make good on his promise however. The US has dramatically increased the number of miles of border fencing over the last 20 years, and many see Trump's wall as a natural progression: Miles of border fencing over time, along with appropriations for border security fencing, infrastructure and technology border fencing (miles) appropriations for border fencing, infrastructure and technology ($ billion) 620 0.35 1996 2006 2009 2013 Conclusion In all probability, it's likely that Trump understands the infeasibility of building a US - Mexico border wall, and has little to no intention of actually building one. Instead, we suspect that - if elected - Trump would opt for a much stronger immigration and deportation policy. It would seem even his supporters are not fully expecting the wall to be built should he become President. However, should Trump be serious about his wall, it will likely cost far more than he is either anticipating or is willing to publicly admit. Should he proceed with the construction, it will cost 2-3 times his public estimate. It is extremely unlikely that the Mexican government will agree to pay for the wall, resulting in a series of strong policies from Trump that will affect the Mexican people. In all, Trump's wall would be a devisive, extremely expensive and politically fraught undertaking, and one that is likely to come at the detriment to the people of Mexico. 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