Economic Update for Europe and Central Asia

EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA ECONOMIC UPDATE THE WORLD BANK IBRD . IDA WORLD BANK GROUP OCTOBER 2014 - 0.5 CROATIA > TEPID GROWTH IN NEW EU MEMBERS ECONOMIC GROWTH PROSPECTS ARE ADJUSTED SLOVENIA 0.7 ECA forecast remains ESTONIA 1.3 tepid as drivers of growth have slowed. BULGARIA 1.4 CZECH REP. 2.0 SLOVAK REP. 2.4 2014 Real GDP LATVIA 2.5 Growth Projections ROMANIA 2.7 THREE KEY TRENDS LITHUANIA 2.9 EU-11 COUNTRIES POLAND 3.0 > STAGNATION IN RUSSIA, NEIGHBORS ARE SLOWING HUNGARY 3.2 Growth in Russia and - 0.7 WESTERN BALKANS BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA > DEEP CRISIS IN UKRAINE some neighboring countries is limited, by structural impediments. -0.5 SERBIA Ukraine conflict turned ALBANIA 2.1 into deep crisis, but has not materialized into stiff headwinds for the region. MONTENEGRO 2.2 KOSOVO 3.0 FYR MACEDONIA 3.3 CIS COUNTRIES, GEORGIA, UKRAINE, TURKEY - 8.0 UKRAINE RUSSIA 0.5 ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA REMAINS WEAK 4.9% BELARUS 1.5 MOLDOVA 2.0 Real GDP Growth %, estimated and projected KYRGYZ REP. 3.0 ARMENIA 3.0 2.4% 2.2% KAZAKHSTAN 4.3 2.1% AZERBAIJAN 4.5 1.8% GEORGIA 5.5 TAJIKISTAN UZBEKISTAN TURKMENISTAN 10.4 TURKEY 3.5 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015p CHALLENGES REMAIN STRONG FINANCIAL SECTOR STABILIZATION (S) LABOR FORCES SKILLS GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS NEED FOR STRUCTURAL REFORMS WEAK FISCAL BALANCES HIGH LEVELS OF EXTERNAL DEBT HIGH LEVELS OF NON-PERFORMING LOANS RECOMMENDATIONS INCLUDE IMPROVING: INVESTMENT CLIMATE ENERGY & TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE GOVERNANCE WWW.WORLDBANK.ORG/ECA