Did the Internet get it wrong in Iowa?

The 'Social Primary' VOTE V Did social media play any part in the lowa caucus result? In December 2011, social media consultancy Sociagility looked at the social media performance of the seven GOP candidates fighting it out in the lowa caucus. Here's what happened. Ron Paul's social media credentials didn't translate into the win in lowa that the pollsters were predicting, but just what was the link between the caucus result and social media platforms? In this infographic, we look at the relationship between each candidates' share of the vote and some of the key social media metrics published in the weeks leading up to 3 January. How the vote went in lowa... Mitt Romney took lowa, but only by 8 votes. Rick Santorum saw a late surge in the polls which saw him neck and neck with Romney and Ron Paul, one of the consistent front runners. ROMNEY SANTORUM PAUL GINGRICH PERRY BACHMANN HUNTSMAN 24.6% 24.5% 21.4% 13.3% 10.3% 5.0% 3 Jan: Results 0.6% .and on social networks Was lowa won or lost in social media? Looking at some of the key social media metrics for the three most popular platforms, it would appear not. Only Facebook seems similar to the 3 January results. ROMNEY SANTORUM PAUL GINGRICH PERRY BACHMANN HUNTSMAN 1,386,349 3 Jan: Twitter followers' 225,460 154,993 112,542 127,274 67,573 60,694 28 Dec-3 Jan: 16,134 7,475 68,937 62,794 41,938 41,694 Twitter mentions? A large following on Twitter and lots of mentions didn't appear to have much impact on the outcome. 264,748 491,930 446,771 You Tube 28 Dec-3 Jan: 136,937 150,274 74,827 YouTube views 39,230 19,443 28 Dec-3 Jan: 180 74 134 142 17 36 New YouTube subscribers? Views and subscribers don't count for much either. 1,652 With the most views, Rick Perry came 5th in the result. 1,270,024 678,142 460,270 3 Jan: Facebook likes 224,778 180,222 43,123 30,871 3 Jan: 3,243 10,577 19,968 15,020 22,180 "Talking about' on Facebook 48,721 Only Facebook could be said to have vaguely mirrored the final result on the day of the vote. 98,388 STOP PRESS: the news still matters There's an astounding link (a 0.9 correlation coefficient) between the final results and online media mentions of each candidate in the week prior to the lowa caucus – showing almost a mirror image. Who said the mainstream media was dead? ROMNEY SANTORUM PAUL GINGRICH PERRY BACHMANN HUNTSMAN 24.6% 24.5% 21.4% 13.3% 10.3% 3 Jan: 5.0% Results 0.6% 28 Dec-3 Jan: 818 Media mentions? 2,517 3,033 3,703 3,777 5,265 4,969 All data sourced from: 1 TweetCount (www.tweetcount.com): followers for each candidate as at 3 January 2012. 2 Washington Post @mentionmachine (www.washingtonpost.com/mentionmachine): Twitter mentions for each candidate for period 28 Dec 2011-3 Jan 2012; media mentions for each canddiate as at 3 January 2012. 3 YouTube Politics channel (www.youtube.com/politics): video views & subscriptions for each candidate for period 28 Dec 2011-3 Jan 2012. * Socialbakers, US Elections 2012 (www.socialbakers.com/elections): Facebook fans and 'people takling about' data for period 28 Dec 2011–3 Jan 2012. Sociagility Sociagility is a consultancy focused on improving organizational competitive advantage, helping clients build their own in-house social media capability through analysis, consultancy and resourcing solutions. www.sociagility.com