The Impact Of The Electric Car

THE IMPACT OF THE ELECTRIC CAR WILL THE EV CHANGE THE WORLD? WHY THE ELECTRIC CAR? IN 2009 TRANSPORTATION ACCOUNTED FOR: 25% OE0/ of all energy- related carbon J70 dioxide ..... 20% emissions of global primary Nearly half of energy use those emissions originated from passenger vehicles. US ELECTRIC VEHICLE SALES 18,000 2011 62,400 2012* Obama Administration Target: 1,000,00 2015 *Projection If this year's EV sales projection is correct, that's still only 0.45% of the 14 million cars to be sold in 2012. =1 million 0.45%. The 70,000 or so EVs sold in the US so far bring the country to just 7% of its 2015 target. T% 1,000,0 WESTERN EUROPE ELECTRIC VEHICLE SALES 7,822 2.630 2.154 2,038 1,000 France Germany Norway UK Greece Others That's only 0.09% of the region's car market. WHAT IS THE GOVERNMENT SPENDING ON EVS? These low sales figures come despite significant government investment. THE US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HAS SPENT: %24 S5 S151 on developing EV battery technology. on installing chaging locations across on establishing a lithium ion battery plant on US soil. the USA. BILLION MILLION MILLION $249 supporting A123 systems, a battery manufacturer. S529 $7.500 on Fisker Automotive, manufacturer of the Fisker Karma. к MILLION A123 MILLION Up to $7,500 subsidy per EV purchased. SYSTEMS WHO ARE THE CONTENDERS? $39.995 $39,95 $36.050 $30,000 FORD FOCUS ELECTRIC CHEVROLET VOLT NISSAN LEAF MITSUBISHI I-MIEV RANGE MPG-E RANGE MPG-E RANGE MPG-E RANGE MPG-E 76 MILES 105 35 MILES 94 73 MILES 99 62 MILES 12 WHY ARE PRICES STILL SO HIGH? Lithium ion battery costs are keeping manufacturing overheads high: $15K NISSAN LEAF CHEVROLET FORD FOCUS ELECTRIC VOLT $10K ... MITSUBISHI I-MIEV $5K $0 (kWh) 5 10 15 20 25 30 WHY AREN'T CONSUMERS BUYING EVS? In 2011 the average price of a new conventional car transaction was $28,771. $30,00 Lifetime costs when compared with conventional cars: $5.3771 SA.819 1 PLUG IN HYBRIDS ELECTRIC VEHICLES The cheapest EVs start at about $30,000 for the Mitsubishi i-MIEV. 7% of respondents to a survey said that they were worried by EVs' limited range. Given the high cost of replacement EV batteries, there's significant concern about battery degradation. WILL COSTS COME DOWN? EV adoption will depend on affordability. How are prices expected to change? PREDICTED COST OF LI-ION BATTERIES PER KWH $GOD Present $200 $160 2020 2025 HOW WILL PREDICTED CHANGES AFFECT COSTS? SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 IF... I... IF... Battery costs halved to $300. Gas prices rise to $4.50/gallon. Electricity prices rise to $0.15/kWh. Gas prices rise even further to $6/gallon. Battery prices fall to $150 kWh. BEVS PHEVS BEVS PHEVS $G.059 4 S1.8664 $7.181 + $1,603 4 BEVS PHEVS over their lifetimes than a over their lifetimes than a conventional vehicle. conventional vehicle. $3,478 + $499 ↑ over their lifetimes than a conventional vehicle. WHAT ARE THE ENVIRONMENTAL SAVINGS? CO2 PER MILE AVG CONVENTIONAL CAR NISSAN LEAF (DIRTY GRID) NISSAN LEAF (CLEAN GRID) 404G 18% 330G 73% 90G *......0.•... OF CO2 PER DAY ASSUMING AN AVERAGE 20 MILE COMMUTE 8.08KG/DAY 6.GKG/DAY 1.OKG/DAY 2.95 METRIC TONS/YEAR 2.4 METRIC TONS/YEAR 0.66 METRIC TONS/YEAR The reduction in emissions would then be approximately 1,603,000 metric tons of CO2, or 0.023% of the US total. If 1 in 20 cars sold in the US this year was a LEAF, 385,000 tons of CO2 would be saved on a clean grid. Sounds like a lot? But that's less than 0.006% of the 6,821,800,000 tons produced by the US alone <0.006% every year. If President Obama's target of 1,000,000 EVs is reached, then the best case savings would be 2.29 million tons of CO2. While that might sound like a lot, it's less than 0.034% of the national total. <0.034% WHO'S PREPARED FOR THE EV REVOLUTION? EV ADOPTION AND INFRASTRUCTURE CURRENT TARGET CHARGING ELECTRIC VEHICLES ELECTRIC VEHICLES LOCATIONS KANAGAWA 2,183 3,000 = 450 LOS ANGELES 2.000 80,000 E 106 AMSTERDAM I. 750 10,000 1=-350 BARCELONA 480 3,000 = 249 BERLIN 350 - 15,000 = 220 China has invested $15 billion in EV expansion. It also generates 90% of its power with coal and oil plants. EVEN ON A CLEAN GRID, THE SAVINGS IN CO2 ARE A TINY PORTION OF THE WHOLE AND ON A DIRTY GRID THEY ARE PRACTICALLY NON-EXISTENT. THUS EV ADOPTION IS ONLY ONE PART OF A SOLUTION THAT REQUIRES A BIG RETHINK OF HOW WE SATISFY OUR POWER NEEDS. 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