Shadow Log: A Short Introduction to Groundhog Day

SHADOW LO06 A SHORT INTRODUCTION TO GROUNDHOG DAY FEBRUARY 2ND is Groundhog Day. How did Groundhog Day come about? Groundhog Day has its origins in an ancient celebration of a point mid-way between the Winter Solstice and the Spring Equinox. Superstition has it that fair weather was seen as forbearance of a stormy and cold second half to winter. In 1887, Clymer H. Freas, city editor of the Punxsutawney Spirit newspaper, was inspired by a group of local hunters and gourmets who held a groundhog hunt and picnic barbecue. He wrote up the group as the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club and went on to promote the Punxsutawney Groundhog as the official weather forecaster. As he embellished the story year after year, other newspapers picked it up and soon everyone looked to Punxsutawney Phil for the critical prediction of when spring would return to the nation. How does Phil tell the world whether or not he sees a shadow? According to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, Phil emerges from his burrow and speaks to the Groundhog Club President in Groundhogese, who then translates Phil's message. How many times has the groundhog seen his shadow over the years? From 1887 to 2014, Punxsutawney Phil has seen his shadow 101 times, has seen no shadow 17 times, and 11 years were not recorded. 101 17 {shadow} {no shadow} SIX MORE WEEKS OF WINTER EARLY SPRING THAT'S AN 85% TREND TOWARD A LONG WINTER {years Phil saw his shadow} {years Phil saw no shadow} 1887 1917 1936 1956 1976 2001 1890 1970 1990 2011 1888 1918 1937 1957 1977 2002 1898 1975 1995 2013 1900 1919 1938 1958 1978 2003 1902 1983 1997 1901 1920 1939 1959 1979 2004 1934 1986 1999 1903 1921 1940 1960 1980 2005 : 1904 1922 1941 1961 1981 2006 1950 1988 2007 1905 1923 1942* 1962 1982 2008 1906 1924 1944 1963 1984 2009 1907 1925 1945 1964 1985 2010 1908 1926 1946 1965 1987 2012 MARCH 1909 1927 1947 1966 1989 2014 20 1910 1928 1948 1967 1991 1911 1929 1949 1968 1992 1912 1930 1951 1969 1993 1913 1931 1952 1971 1994 1914 1932 1953 1972 1996 1915 1933 1954 1973 1998 1916 1935 1955 1974 2000 *{partial shadow} {no aPpearance}: 1943 {years not recorded}: 1889, 1891, 1893-1897, 1899 So, how oFten is Punxsutawney Phil right? Technically the first day of spring is between March 19 and March 21, which is six weeks after Groundhog Day. The Groundhog Club claims Phil's predictions of early spring are accurate 75% or more of the time, but others feel differently. StormFax Weather Almanac and records kept since 1887 show that Phil's weather predictions have been correct 39% of the time, while The National Climatic Data Center (NOAA) has claimed Phil's predictions as inaccurate on average, and that Phil has “shown no talent for predicting the arrival of spring." So perhaps Groundhog Day and Punxsutawney Phil is just a fun tradition... STAY TUNED: Will Phil see his shadow next year? 2015? Either way, spring will probably start on March 20, as usual. Sources: Groundhog Club, http://www.groundhog.org/; NOAA, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/special-reports/groundhog-day.php; About.com, http://statistics.about.com/od/Applications/a/Groundhog-Day-Statistics.htm; Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groundhog_day