What Climate Change Means for Africa and Asia

CLIMATE EXTREMES, REGIONAL IMPACTS and the CASE FOR RESILIENCE PLACES & PEOPLE INCREASINGLY AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE Our planet is increasingly experiencing dramatic climate and weather extremes. That is why the World Bank commissioned this second report in the "Turn Down the Heat" series to gauge how rising global temperatures could affect 3 regions: Sub-Saharan Africa, South East Asia, and South Asia. Urgent action is needed now to mitigate carbon emissions and to build resilience in the face of growing threats to food security, water resources, coastal ecosystems and cities. A WARMER WORLD The global mean temperature is 0.8°C higher today than in pre-industrial times. The impacts on weather, water and sea level will continue to increase in severity as the global temperature rises. WITHOUT CONCERTED ACTION, WE COULD SEE A +2°C SCENARIO IN 20-30 YEARS AND +4°C BY THE END OF THE CENTURY. RISE IN DECLINE IN WATER CHANCE OF WARMING SEA LEVEL AVAILABILITY EXCEEDING 4°C BY 2100 +4°C *2°C 10% GREATER EQUAL TO CHANCE IT WILL EXCEED THAN 20% 100 CM 5°C *2°C +4°C 40% AS MUCH AS CHANCE IT WILL EXCEED EQUAL TO CURRENT 70 CM CURRENT 50% CURRENT 4°C No region is immune. The poor and most vulnerable will be hit the hardest. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA FOOD PRODUCTION AT RISK Under climate change, Sub-Saharan Africa faces risks to food production, increased heat extremes and droughts, changes to vegetation and risk of species extinction. PROJECTED WARMING, WITHOUT CONCERTED ACTION 2030s 1.5°C 2040s 2°C 2060s 3°C 2080s 4°C RESULTING IN: UNUSUAL SUMMER HEAT EXTREMES LOSS OF (percentage of land that will experience) GRAZING LAND 4°C+ GREATER O50/ 0J/0 85% THAN THE LOSS OF SAVANNAS REDUCES THE AVAILABILITY OF FOOD FOR GRAZING ANIMALS p1.5°C 20-25% PRESENT O50/ OF THE LAND 2J%0 IS SAVANNAS 3°C 14% 3°C 70% 2°C 45% OR ONE-SEVENTH OF THE LAND WILL REMAIN SAVANNAS ECOSYSTEM SHIFTS FROM PRE-INDUSTRIAL TIMES (1850) 1.5°C 41-51% 2°C 10-15% LOSS IN UNIQUE LOCAL PLANT SPECIES IN SOUTH OF SUB-SAHARAN SPECIES AT RISK OF AFRICA AND NAMIBIA EXTINCTION (ASSUMING NO MIGRATION OF SPECIES) REDUCTION OF CROP-GROWING CROP YIELD CHANGES AT +2°C AREAS FROM PRESENT DAY 1.5°C-2°C 40-80% 3°C 90% GREATER THAN MAIZE, MILLET AND SORGHUM CROPPING AREAS FOR CURRENT CULTIVARS WHEAT MAIZE SORGHUM 10-17% 5-22% 15-17% REDUCTION IN CROP PRODUCTION Compared to 1960-2002 conditions Under warming of about 1.8-2°C, climate change could indirectly cause malnutrition in an additional 10 million children by 2050. SOUTH EAST ASIA COASTAL ZONE AND CITIES AT RISK Under climate change, South East Asia faces increased sea-level rise, tropical cyclones, heat extremes and ocean warming and acidification. When these impacts combine, they are likely to affect multiple sectors, undermining coastal livelihoods and urban cities along the coast. PROJECTED WARMING, WITHOUT CONCERTED ACTION 2030s 15°C 2040s 2°C 2060s 3°C 2080s 4°C RESULTING IN: UNUSUAL SUMMER HEAT EXTREMES SEA-LEVEL RISE (percentage of land that will experience) 4°C 110CM 4°C+ 90% 1.5°-2°C - 75CM GREATER THAN 3°C 90CM 3°C 85% By 2080-210o By 2100 (3°C warming), an 88 cm rise in sea 2°C 60-70% level could flood 69% of Bangkok. 1.5°C 50-60% BLEACHING OF CORAL REEFS Under 2°C warming, marine fish capture is projected to decrease by about 50% in the southern Philippines during the 2050s due to warmer sea temperatures 4°C MOST CORAL REEFS ARE PROJECTED TO BE EXTINCT, WITH THE LOSS OF 2°C VIRTUALLY ALL CORAL REEFS TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE BLEACHING ASSOCIATED FISHERIES AND COASTAL PROTECTION. and ocean acidification. SOUTH ASIA EXTREMES OF WATER SCARCITY AND EXCESS Under climate change, South Asia faces impacts to food production and seasonal water availability and variability in the monsoon patterns. Coastal/deltaic areas (such as in Bangladesh) willI be vulnerable to extreme river floods, tropical cyclones, rising sea-level and very high temperatures. These multiple impacts pose major development challenges to infrastructure and access to reliable energy. PROJECTED WARMING, WITHOUT CONCERTED ACTION 2030s 1.5°C 2040s 2°C 2060s 3°C 2080s 4°C RESULTING IN: UNUSUAL SUMMER HEAT EXTREMES INCREASE IN GANGES RIVER (percentage of land that will experience) RUNOFF FROM PRE-INDUSTRIAL TIME (1850), AFFECTING AGRICULTURE 2°C 20% 1.5°C 15% 2°C 20% 4°C+ GREATER THAN 70% 3°C 50% 4°C+ 50% GREATER THAN Under 2°C warming, 33% of the Kolkata metropolitan area is projected to be exposed to flooding of more than 25cm in the event of extreme rainfall patterns by 2050. Under 2°C warming, water availability in Pakistan and Nepal is projected to be too low for self-sufficiency in food production by 2050. Extreme wet monsoons that currently have a chance of occurring only once in 100 years are projected to occur every 10 years by the end of the century. THE TIME FOR ACTION IS NOW MANY OF THE WORST CLIMATE IMPACTS CAN STILL BE AVOIDED BY HOLDING WARMING BELOW 2°C. THE WORLD BANK IS WORKING WITH OTHERS TO DELIVER BOLD IDEAS THAT WILL MAKE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE. HELP PLACE ROBUST SUPPORT REMOVAL CARRY OUT TRIPLE BUILD LOW-CARBON, WORK WITH OTHERS VALUE ON CARBON OF HARMFUL FOSSIL WINS OF CLIMATE- CLIMATE-RESILIENT CITIES TO ACCELERATE FUEL SUBSIDIES SMART AGRICULTURE ENERGY EFFICIENCY WORLD BANK CLIMATE FINANCING $Z.I BILLION (FOR CLIMATE MITIGATION IN 2012) $4.6 BILLION (FOR CLIMATE ADAPTATION IN 2012, DOUBLE THE PREVIOUS YEAR) HELPING AFFECT BETTER CHANGE $1.3 BILLION $7.3 MILLION PROVIDED BY THE PILOT PROGRAM FOR CLIMATE VIETNAM'S YEARLY SAVINGS IN DIKE MAINTENANCE RESILIENCE (PPCR) TO SUPPORT 18 COUNTRIES AND CSTS WITH THE ONE-TIME INVESTMENT OF U.S. $1.1 2 REGIONAL PROGRAMS TO INTEGRATE CLIMATE RISK MILLION IN PROTECTION OF 12,000 HECTARES OF AND RESILIENCE INTO CORE DEVELOPMENT PLANNING MANGROVES. AND IMPLEMENTATION. $7.6 BILLION 5 MILLION RESIDENTS IN THE BICOL REGION OF THE PHILIPPINES DISBURSED BY THE CLIMATE INVESTMENT FUNDS TO WHO HAVE A POWER SUPPLY SYSTEM THAT MEETS HELP DEVELOPING COUNTRIES MAKE LOW-EMISSIONS TYPHOON-RESILIENCE STANDARDS. AND CLIMATE-RESILIENT ADVANCES. $299 MILLION 2 MILLION SOLAR HOME SYSTEMS INSTALLED TO LIGHT UP DEDICATED TO THE ACCELERATED FOOD SECURITY BANGLADESH'S COUNTRYSIDE. WITH 60,000 HOMES NEWLY LIT UP EACH MONTH, IT IS THE FASTEST- GROWING SOLAR HOME PROGRAM IN THE WORLD. PROJECT IN TANZANIA TO ACHIEVE GREATER FOOD SECURITY BY INCREASING FOOD PRODUCTION AND SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR THE RURAL POOR. O 32 HIGH-RISK LARGE DAMS BEING REPAIRED AND IMPROVED TO ENHANCE SAFETY AND OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY IN SRI LANKA. TO LEARN MORE, GO TO CLIMATECHANGE.WORLDBANK.ORG Source: Turn Down The Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience. Acknowledgements: CDKN, CIF, C4C, GFDRR