Politics of Climate Change

The Politics of Climate Change At the end of this year, almost 200 countries will gather in the hopes of formulating long-lasting approaches to curbing emissions of planet-warming greenhouse gases (GHGS). Environment ministers will meet in Doha, Qatar, from November 26 until December 7 to try and reach a new agreement on emissions at the 2012 UN Climate Change Conference. Last year at talks in Durban, South Africa, nations agreed to extend the Kyoto Protocol but they have not decided how long the second period will last - five years or eight. One of the main points that ministers must determine is the future of the Kyoto Protocol, the only legally binding effort to reduce emissions, which is set to expire at the end of 2012. They will also need to agree on a procedure to increase emissions cut pledges under the second commitment period plans. Around 187 countries have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, with 39 industrial nations pledging an average emissions cut of at least 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels by the end of 2012. Current pledges are not seen as sufficient to keep global temperature rises below a ceiling of 2 degrees Celsuis - the level scientists say must not be surpassed to avoid the most pernicious effects of climate warming. Status of the Kyoto Protocol by Country Under Kyoto, signatory countries are divided into developing and developed nations. Each industrialised country has negotiated its own legally binding tailor-made target to cut GHGS by a certain percentage with respect to 1990 emissions levels*. While developing nations were given a pass on emissions cuts so that environmental concerns didn't limit economic development, these nations are meant to host clean energy projects financed by developed nations. Below is a map identifying the signatory status of all countries and some of the 2012 targets for key players: European Union: 15 member states must Canada Russia: collectively cut emissions by 8 per cent. Has pledged to make more Pledged to cut by 6 per cent but withdrew in 2011. Opposed to second commitment period. Pledged a zero per cent change below 1990 levels. Opposed to second commitment period. Japan: Pledged to cut by 6 per cent. Opposed to cuts under second commitment period.* second commitment period. China: Signed as developing nation. Wants second commitment period. United States: Signed but did not ratify treaty. India: Signed as developing nation. Wants second commitment period. I Signed as developed nation I Signed as developing nation I Signed but did not ratify I Signed but withdrew Non-signatory * Several former Soviet Union states have their pledges tied to years other than 1990. *A body set up by the European Commission negotiates for all 27 members, but individual states have to meet different targets under the Kyoto Protocol as countries joined the EU at differing times. Countries who were members prior to 2004 must collectively reduce emissions by 8 per cent with exception of Poland and Hungary (6 per cent), and Malta and Cyprus. The Biggest Emitters Emissions history: 1990 2000 2010 Carbon dioxide is the most prominent of the GHGS, and its regulation has been a key component of climate change regulation initiatives. The section below shows the ten biggest emitters of CO2 for 2010, and how their emissions have changed since 1990. Ranking in 2010 Million tonnes of CO2 3 6 10 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 China United States India Russia Japan Germany South Korea Canada Iran United Kingdom Looking at carbon emissions per capita tells a different story, with oil-producing states and highly developed countries gracing the top of the rankings. India, one of the biggest emitters with relatively low emissions per capita standing (66th), has said it would sign a climate change pact when per capita targets are used. Ranking in 2010 Tonnes of CO, per capita 3 4 5 10 40 30 20 10 Qatar Kuwait Trinidad Luxembourg Brunei United Arab Netherlands Bahrain United States Australia and Tobago Emirates Antilles Positions of Prominent Players Countries also agreed at talks in Durban to work out a new accord by 2015, which would come into force no later than 2020. A working group was set up to organise a work plan for 2012-2015, but clear timetables and targets have yet to be set. The Durban deal talked of a "new protocol, legal instrument or legally binding deal". Countries will also need to decide which form the new pact will take. Perhaps the biggest issue facing negotiations is finding a way to fairly share the responsibility, costs, and burden of climate adaptation between rich and poor nations. Some rich countries like the United States are reluctant to commit to more ambitious action that may harm their economic competitiveness at a time of weak growth compared with rivals such as China. On the other hand, developing countries say that industrialised countries should shoulder most of the burden for climate change since the rich have burnt fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution. United States: • No plans to ratify Kyoto Protocol. Against any emissions legislation unless China, India, South Africa, and Brazil also are legally bound to slow emissions growth. • Pledged a 17 per cent emissions reduction by 2020 from 2005, but plans were blocked by Congress. • Against efforts to make new accord legally binding, and objects to setting 2015 as the deadline for negotiations. European Union: • Spearheaded efforts for new global agreement. Wants the pact to be legally binding. • Committed to cutting emission to 20 per cent below 1990 levels before 2020, and will increase to 30 per cent if other big emitters follow suit. • Supports 85 – 90 per cent cuts from 1990 levels by 2050. Japan: • Pledged a 25 per cent reduction against 1990 levels by 2020, a move that was heavily criticised by domestic industries. • Against new quantitative obligations without other big emitters like the US and China signing onto Kyoto Protocols. China: • Pushing strongly for a second commitment period for Kyoto. • Non-binding pledge to cut carbon produced per unit of DPG by 40 - 45 per cent of 2005 levels by 2020, allowing emissions to rise more slowly than economic growth. India: • Says voluntary curbs in emissions by developing countries must be financed by industrialised nations. • In favour of pushing industrialised countries collectively reduce emissions by 40 per cent of 1990 levels by 2020. • Aims to cut carbon production intensity by 20 to 25 per cent from 2005 levels by 2050. • Wants developed nations to commit 1 per cent of GDP to help developing nations combat global warming. • Strongly opposes all legally binding cuts. Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) & Least Developed Countries (LDCS): Gulf States: • Against treaty without indemnification system for the losses that oil producing countries would incur by burning less fossil fuels. • AOSIS are a group of 43 Island nations threatened by rising seas levels; LDCS are 48 additional nations especially vulnerable to climate change. The two have often negotiated jointly in recent years. • Pushing to receive outside funding and transfer of technology • Want new accord to treat developed and developing nations equally. for clean fossil fuels, including for carbon capture and sequestration (cSS) technology - a method that would prevent the release of large quantities of carbon dioxide associated with fossil fuels. • Want at least 1 per cent of industrialised nations' GDP spent on reversing climate-caused damage. • Qatar and Abu Dhabi invest heavily in clean energy technology development, but side with other Gulf States on the matter. • Renew Kyoto for five year rather than eight year period to prevent locking in insufficient ambition. • Secure $100bn annual pledge by developed countries for long-term financing to help developing countries adapt to changes in climate by 2020. Note: These nations are part of the G77, a loose coalition of developing nations formed to help advance its members' collective economic interests and increase their negotiating capacity at the UN. Sources: Status of the Kyoto Protocol by Country United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change - http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/items/2613.php The Biggest Emitters International Energy Agency · http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/name,4010,en.html ALJAZEERA cC BY NO NO