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CO2 emissions from Land use - Baseline, 1990-2050
Figure 3.8. CO2 emissions from land use: Baseline, 1990-2050 4 - 3- 1- 1900 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 -1 -2 Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE. GtCO2e
CO2 emissions from Land use - Baseline, 1990-2050
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-------- Land-use emissions of CO2, past trends and future projections ----------
Historically, global net-CO2 emissions from land-use change (mainly deforestation driven by the expansion of
agricu...
ltural land) have been in the order of 4-8 GtCO2 a year. Other factors also contribute to land-use related
emissions, e.g. forest degradation and urbanisation.
In the Baseline scenario, the global agricultural land area is projected to expand until 2030, and to decline
thereafter, due to a number of underlying factors such as demographics and agricultural yield improvements (see
Chapter 2 for detailed discussions). However, the projected trends in agricultural land area differ tremendously
across regions. In OECD countries, a slight decrease (2%) to 2050 is projected. For the BRIICS as a whole, the
projected decrease is more than 17%, reflecting in particular the declining population in Russia and China (from
2035). At least for the coming decades, a further expansion in agricultural area is still projected in the rest of the
world, where population is still growing and the transition towards a higher calorie and more meat-based diet is
likely to continue. These agricultural developments are among the main drivers of land-use change, and
consequently of developments in GHG emissions from land use (Figure 3.8). From about 2045 onwards, a net
reforestation trend is projected – with CO2 emissions from land use becoming negative.
However, there is large uncertainty over these projections, because of annual variations and data limitations
on land-use trends and the exact size of various carbon stocks.* To date, the key driver of agricultural production
has been yield increases (80%), while only 20% of the increase has come from an expansion in agricultural area
(Smith et al., 2011). If agricultural yield improvements turn out to be less than anticipated, global agricultural land
area might not decline, but could stabilise or grow slowly instead.
------ Note:* Land-use related emissions can be more volatile than energy emissions. For instance, emissions are not only influenced
by land-use changes but also by land management. Furthermore, there is considerably more uncertainty in methodologies for
evaluating land-use related emissions, as these are less well-established.
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