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Change in energy-related CO2 and CH4 emissions in selected regions
Figure 2.3 Change in energy-related CO, and CH, emissions in selected regions in the 4-for-2 °C Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, 2020 855 Mt 399 Mt 284 Mt 279 Mt 241 Mt 203 Mt 100% Fossil-fuel subsidies Power generation 80% Energy efficiency Upstream CH, reductions 60% 40% 20% China United Middle India European Union Russia States East Note: Savings are allocated by enabling policy and total emissions are in CO,-eq.
Change in energy-related CO2 and CH4 emissions in selected regions
shared by W.E.R.I on Jul 02
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More than 70% of abatement occurs in non-OECD countries, where projected demand for
energy in 2020 is around 480 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) (or 5%) lower than
in the New Policies Scenar...
io (Figure 2.3). China alone is responsible for more than onequarter
of the global emissions savings from these measures in 2020, resulting from the
significant scope to reduce emissions that accompanies its rapidly rising energy demand,
large potential to further improve energy efficiency and heavy reliance on coal-fired
power generation. The Middle East (9% share of savings in 2020) and India (9%) together
account for almost one-fith of the savings, driven primarily by fossil-fuel subsidy reform
and reduced upstream methane emissions in the former and efficiency improvements and
changes in the power generation mix in the latier. Although energy efficiency policy plays
an important role in the Middle East too, it is the assumed enhanced phase-out of fossilfuel
subsidies that encourages its realisation, as this reduces the payback period of more
efficient technologies to the necessary extent to make efficiency policy viable.8 OECD
countries see a smaller share of the savings at below 30%, although the United States
(13% share of savings in 2020) is the second-largest contributor to emissions reductions,
after China, and, together with the European Union (8%), accounts for around one-fith of
the global total. The larger share of savings in non-OECD countries is directly linked to the
higher growth in their energy demand 90% of global demand growth to 2020 in the New
Policies Scenario. With energy demand per capita today 70% below the OECD average,
non-OECD countries have expectations of higher growth to 2020 in both energy demand
and emissions, and associated scope for savings especially because population growth
(90% of global growth to 2020) and economic growth (almost three-quarters of global
GDP growth until 2020) are much stronger than in OECD countries.
Note: Savings are allocated by enabling policy and total emissions are in CO2-eq.
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