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450 Core scenario: emissions and cost of mitigation, 2010-2050

Figure 3.18. 450 Core scenario: emissions and cost of mitigation, 2010-2050 Indes 201100 Inder 2010-100 OECD A1 Rest A1 GDP 2.1% GOP 4% 200 -Bazeline 360 180 --- 490 core 180 140 250 120 200 100 150 GHG 43.% s00 40 2010 2015 2000 2045 200 2010 2015 2005 200 2040 2045 260 Index 2010-100 Inder 2010-100 Rest of BRIICS Rest of the world 700 500 GDP 4% GDP 44% 500 -- -- 400 400 200 200 GHG 40% GHG -724% 100 100 2010 2015 2005 2000 2040 20 2010 2015 200 2040 2060 Notes: Emission projections are before pemit trading, ie. they reflect emission allowances. "OECD AI" stands for the group of OECD countries that are also part of Annex I of the Kyoto Protocol; "Rest Al" stands for the other Annex I parties, including Russia Rest of BRIICS" are the BRIICS countries excluding Russia, and "Rest of the World represent all other regions distinguished in the ENV-Linkages model. GDP figures do not include the costs of inaction. Source: OECD Environmental Outiook projections; output from ENV-Linkages.

450 Core scenario: emissions and cost of mitigation, 2010-2050

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---- The implications of achieving the 450 core scenario. ---- Figure 3.18 indicates that to achieve the 450 ppm stabilisation target, global emission reductions of 12% will be needed by 2020 and 70% ... by 2050 compared to the Baseline (for 2050 this means 52% below 2005 levels, and 42% below 1990 levels). Emissions would therefore have to decrease at an average rate of 1.7% per year between 2010 and 2050, compared to the increase of +1.3% projected under the Baseline. Reduced CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion would account for 75% of the global reduction by 2050. For emissions from land-use change the situation is reversed: the 450 Core scenario would require additional land for growing bioenergy crops. Thus there would be a less rapid reduction of emissions from land-use change compared to the Baseline, and lower levels of net CO2 uptake in the later decades (the difference is 1.2 GtCO2e in 2050). In order to achieve the 450 ppm target these additional emissions (and reduced uptake) would have to be compensated for by greater emission reductions by energy and industry.

450 Core scenario: emissions and cost of mitigation, 2010-2050

450 Core scenario: emissions and cost of mitigation, 2010-2050

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