The US Coal Crash

Waiting for an upturn in the coal markets that never came Index comparison over the period 2009-2014 Dow Jones Recently 26 US coal companies have gone into bankruptcy Industrial Average Index +69% Dow Jones -76% Total Market > Coal Sector Index Many factors dampening demand in play Dow Jones US Total Market 16 800 CCR Rule Coal Sector (left axis) proposed 14 700 MATS proposed CSAPR issued MSCI World Energy Index (left axis) 12 600 MATS issued Clean Power ШП Plan proposed 10 500 Henry Hub Gas US price (right axis) Carbon NSPS Cooling Water Intake issued Monoxide ШI proposed Ozone 400 US legal challenges 300 Particulate Sulphur Matter Dioxide US EPA 200 environmental and Lead pollution regulation 100 Nitrogen Dioxide Climate Climate bill bill passed dropped Court US EPA air quality standards strenghtened invalidates i CSAPR 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 It is a structural shift What about China? The level of US power generation remained the same between 2005 and 2013, but the share of energy sources used for generation have changed: 2005-2013 res +4.1% In 2014 coal consumption fell by 2.9% +8.7% +4.1% gas +8.7% - 2.3% -10.5% coal -10.5% oil oil -2.3% coal Initiative Carbon Tracker Source: The US Coal Crash. Evidence for Structural Change, Carbon Tracker, March 2015 Index Points Designer: Margherita Gagliardi gas renewables $/MMBTU