Turkmenistan : GDP Growth, Inflation.
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ASIAN DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK 2013 - Turkmenistan :
Growth remained robust at 11.1%, led by strong gas exports and high public spending on infrastructure, with rising imports limiting the current account...
surplus to 1.5% of GDP. Even higher oil and gas production and exports are expected in 2013 and 2014, providing continued funding for the large public sector. However, growth is forecast to moderate to 9% in 2013 and 8% in 2014.
The economy grew by a strong 11.1%, a bit less than the 14.7% recorded in
2011 (Figure 3.7.1). With growth averaging 11% since 2007, Turkmenistan
was reclassified by the World Bank in July 2012 as an upper-middle-income country.
On the demand side, strong gas exports and public investment in infrastructure were the main growth drivers. Gas exports, comprising 70% of total exports, have continued to rise because of long-term contracts with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), which has steadily
increased its purchases since 2009. Other importers, notably the Russian
Federation and Iran, have continued to purchase gas in more moderate
volumes. Investment, mainly in hydrocarbons and various public sector
projects, surged by 38% over 2011 levels, reflecting programs guided by the
National Program of Socioeconomic Development (NPSED), 2011–2030,
which aims to diversify and modernize the country’s industrial base,
develop rural areas, and raise living standards.
On the supply side, the government reported all sectors growing
in 2012. Industry contributed more than half of all growth, with the
hydrocarbon subsector, which provides 75% of industrial output and 40%
of GDP, growing by an estimated 19%. Government investment projects
and social programs boosted construction, while growth in services came
mainly from wholesale and retail trade, transport, and communications.
Agricultural growth came from higher crop and livestock production,
reflecting government subsidies and lending programs and improvements
to grain and cotton cultivation. Larger harvests of cotton (up by 12.6%
over 2011) and wheat (up by 2.7%) helped reduce agricultural imports.
Liberalized prices for certain items put upward pressure on consumer
prices. However, officially measured inflation was limited to 5.3% with
the help of government subsidies for utilities; low prices for gasoline
and public transportation; and price controls on major foodstuffs
(Figure 3.7.2).
Sources: International Monetary Fund. 2012. Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia. November; ADB estimates
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