Transcribed
Sensitivity of energy consumption to the evolution of energy intensity
2.1.2 Sensitivity of energy consumption to the evolution of energy intensity, historical intensity trend (less optimistic) versus forecast trend (baseline) Asia energy consumption (baseline) Asia energy consumption (less optimistic) MTOE 12,000 – 9,000 – 6,000 – 3,000 - 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 MTOE = millon tons of oll equivalent. Source: Lee, Park, and Saunders, forthcoming.
Sensitivity of energy consumption to the evolution of energy intensity
shared by W.E.R.I on Jun 30
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Energy intensity trends are hard to predict as they are driven by many factors beyond improved technical efficiency.
The faster decline of energy intensity in the baseline scenario assumes improvemen...
ts supported by changes in industry
structure, slower industrialization in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and productivity gains for non-energy inputs.
This forecast is subject to greater uncertainty than the less
optimistic scenario based on historical trend. Figure 2.1.2
shows the growth of energy consumption under the two
scenarios. Asia’s energy consumption is projected to double
from 2010 to 2035 even under the optimistic baseline scenario.
MTOE = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Lee, Park, and Saunders, forthcoming.
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