Russian Economic Report 31

31 THE WORLD BANK MARCH 2014 RUSSIAN ECONOMIC REPORT EXPECTED GROWTH 3.6% CONFIDENCE CRISIS ACTUAL GROWTH 3.4% EXPOSES ECONOMIC WEAKNESS IN RUSSIA HIGH-RISK SCENARIO RUSSIA IS IN ECONOMIC 2.1% DOWNTURN GLOBAL MARKETS ARE MORE VOLATILE ESTIMATED GROWTH LOW-RISK SCENARIO 1.3% LOW-RISK SCENARIO 1.3% BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SENTIMENTS REMAIN WEAK 1.1% 2012 2013 2014 2015 TWO LOWER GROWTH SCENARIOS FOR RUSSIA TWO GROWTH SCENARIOS ECONOMIC MOBILITY COULD BE ON HOLD HIGH-RISK SCENARIO Low-risk scenario assumes a limited and short-lived -1.8% impact of the Crimea crisis. STRUCTURAL REFORMS + COULD BE REPLACED High-risk scenario assumes a more severe shock to economic and investment activities if the geopolitical situation worsens and projects a contraction in output of 1.8% for 2014. WITH CRISIS RESPONSE MIDDLE CLASS FORMATION 2001 MIDDLE CLASS 30% MIRATAMA MAMARILAMMIKAAM 2010 MIDDLE CLASS (60% NA MAAMILAAMMMINA AMMIRKAM 35 tMRRAAAMIRRAMM Middle class growth and poverty reduction can be explained by high growth in average incomes and consumption during 2000-2010. 10 t MRIMIRAAMMIRAAMM POVERTY RATE DOWNLOAD FULL REPORT AT WWW.WORLDBANK.ORG/RUSSIA © 2014 The World Bank Group, All Rights Reserved.