If China Slows

IMPACT BY GEOGRAPHY IF CHINA SLOWS Central Europe Export diversification means that Central Europe is now more exposed to China's performance. ●. Impact on Europe, Middle East & Africa Frontier Strategy Group's new index examines the possibility of a sustained economic slowdown in China and its impact on global markets, particularly the EMEA region. Western Europe Markets with significant industrial and technology exports will be more susceptible due to the waning of strong Chinese demand for such products. TIES TO CHINA Middle East Commodities exports will be disproportiontely hit. Sub-Saharan Africa While commodities exporters will see less demand for their products, direct investment is less exposed than it seems and may even increase. Nearly 3/4 of China's oil comes from the Middle East and Africa. 75% Relative Insulation High Vulnerability Nigeria, Africa's top oil exporter, plans to convert up to 7% of its foreign cash reserves from US dollars to renminbi. 100 Com 75% 67% 60% TOP 10 MOST VULNERABLE NOTABLE SCORES Almost 75% of the DRC's copper exports, 67% of South Africa's iron-ore exports, and 60% of Zambia's copper exports go to China. COUNTRIES 42.5 1. South Africa 6. Saudi Arabia 25.3 4.3 China-Africa trade, worth $210 billion in 2013, is more than 2000 times higher than its 1960 value. 2. Angola 7. Slovakia 3. Zambia 8. Kazakhstan Greece's relative weakness as an Saudi Arabia's Germany's exports make up a massive heavy dependence on oil part of its economy, but its export base is relatively diversified. $210 billion 4. Congo (DRC) 9. Iran exports will make it severely vulnerable to a Chinese exporter make its economic growth less impacted by a Chinese shock. - $100 million economic slowdown. 5. Switzerland 10. Zimbabwe 1960 2013 Learn more: [email protected] I blog.frontierstrategygroup.com @FrontierStrtGrp FRONTIER STRATEGY GROUP South Africa Angola Zambia Congo (DRC) Switzerland Saudi Arabia Slovakia Kazakshtan Iran Zimbabwe Iraq Hungary Qatar Ukraine Czech Republic Belarus Lithuania Bulgaria Germany Uganda Mozambique Azerbaijan Ghana Russa Cote d'Ivoire PIUPZUPI Ethiopia Poland Cameroon Algeria Romania Israel Italy Nigeria France Serbia United Kingdom Egypt Morocco Turky Spain Croatia UAE Kenya Lebanon Greece