How Gas Forecasting Works

HOW GAS FORECASTING WORKS How many times have you stepped into the shower and enjoyed the rush of steaming hot water? If you have a natural gas hot water system, what you might not know is that before you even thought about showering, somebody else had anticipated your needs and placed a gas order on your behalf. This process is known as gas forecasting. NATURAL GAS MARKETS There are gas trading markets in Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia. Gas producers sell gas to large industrial customers as well as energy retailers. Retailers then sell the gas to you. The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) oversees these markets. HOW GAS REACHES YOU 20,000 Км RANSMISSION PIPELINES of gas transmission pipelines in Australia transport gas to distribution networks in cities and major towns. HOMES AND BUSINESSES WELLS Gas is extracted from deep under the ground or ocean floor using wells. DISTRIBUTION PIPELINES The distribution pipelines that run through our cities and major towns cover a further CITIES AND MAJOR TOWNS 74,000 KM Most pipelines used to transport gas are underground to minimise the risk of them being damaged. HOW GAS IS FORECASTED AND ORDERED GAS FORECASTERS ARE EMPLOYED BY: AEMO ENERGY RETAILERS AEMO operate the gas trading markets and help ensure that sufficient gas is available. Work out the gas demands of their customers and place orders with gas suppliers. CUSTOMERS Gas is generally topped allowing time for it to travel along the pipelines. overnight, GAS SUPPLIERS GAS FORECASTERS CONSIDER A RANGE OF FACTORS TO PREDICT CUSTOMERS` DEMAND MONDAY WEATHER BUSINESS ACTIVITY DAY OF THE WEEK HISTORIC DEMAND Differences between Gas forecasters use The production rates of particular industries and the general state of the economy in Australia and Demand is typically higher on weekdays compared to the weekend. Demand tends to be lower on gas usage patterns from previous years, looking at similar seasons, time of the day, and weather conditions to help predict demand. winter and summer requirements. Daily weather changes also impact demand. A sudden cold snap can see demand internationally all impact demand. public holidays and over the Christmas and significantly increase. New Year period. For more energy information visit Energy Explorer at www.ORIGINENERGY.COM.AU/ENERGYEXPLORER origin MAY 2013