Asian Development Outlook 2013: Asia's Energy Challenge

Asian Development Outlook 2013 Asia's Energy Challenge ADB Asian Development Bank FIGHTING POVERTY IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC wwW.ADB.ORG ECONOMY AND ENERGY Energy systems will be challenged to satisfy Asia's economic aspirations. 51%-56% 44% With 6% annual growth, developing Asia could produce 44% of global GDP by 2035. From barely a third in 2010, the Asia and Pacific region's share of world energy consumption would rise rapidly to 51%-56% by 2035. BARELY A 6% THIRD ANNUAL GDP GROWTH 2035 2010 2035 ASIA'S ENERGY CONSUMPTION Without radical changes to the region's energy mix, its consumption of fossil fuels would climb. ENERGY-RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS BY 2035 COAL CONSUMPTION 81% INCREASE OVER 21 BILLION TONS OIL CONSUMPTION DOUBLED ASIA'S EMISSIONS NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION TRIPLED WORLD'S MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE EMISSIONS * estimates from climate change experts 22 BILLION TONS ENERGY FOR ASIA'S POOR 18% OF DEVELOPING ASIA do not have access to electricity SHARE OF POPULATION WITHOUT ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY 54% 0% 25% 27% 33% 17% 2% 34% Bangladesh People's Republic of China India Indonesia Pakistan Philippines Viet Nam Rest of developing Asia SHARE OF POPULATION DEPENDENT ON BIOMASS FOR COOKING 91% 29% 66% 55% 64% 50% 56% 54% Bangladesh People's Republic India Indonesia Pakistan Philippines Viet Nam Rest of developing Asia WASTEFUL SUBSIDIES Consumer subsidies artificially reduce the price of energy, diverting it from more efficient uses and disproportionately benefiting the poor. Subsidies impose a tremendous burden on public budgets. 3%-5% 1%-3% SHARE OF SUBSIDIES FROM GDP O--------. Bangladesh India Pakistan Indonesia Viet Nam COUNTRIES SHOULD CONSIDER ELIMINATING WASTEFUL SUBSIDIES 2.6 BILLION TONS Global CO2 emissions would be an estimated 2.6 billion tons lower in 2035 if countries around the world eliminated wasteful subsidies. TAPPING CLEANER ENERGY SUPPLIES Asia's future energy supply must be bigger and its mix much cleaner than today. Greater use of renewable energy will play a key role, and the region has significant potential for such. 20 ŞAVE GW GW In less than a decade, generating capacity rose from neglegible to 82 gigawatts for wind and 20 gigawatts for solar, with great potential to further expand both Asian countries are among the world leaders in the manufacture of solar power equipment Wind and solar are becoming cheaper and are expected to reach grid parity in some countries soon