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Gas - Generated Power Market

Gas - Generated Power Market Energy costs Market dynamics and gas prices LNG and pipeline gas - major trade flows worldwide (bcm), 2011 1171 29.1 RA.O 3.9 15.7 14.3 17.4 13.6 I US Canada I Mexico - South and Central America - Europe and Eurasia Middle East I Afica - Asla Pacific Pipeline Gas - LNG Source BP(201229) The UK could be considered as a fourth market as it is significantly more liberalised than the European market Wholesale prices for natural gas, 1994-2011 ($/MBtu) 20 Crude oil (OECD) 18 16 Japan 14 12 EU 10 UK 8. 6. US - LNG Japan df - EU or US Henry Hub --- Crude Oll (OECD) or UK NBP Source - BP Statistical Review 2012 US prices are based on the Henry Hub (HH) index; UK prices on the National Balancing Point (NBP);Continental European prices are proxied by the German border price (BAFA); Asían LNG contracts are long-term contracts indexed to a basket of crudes imported to Japan. Natural gas wholesale price forecasts by various sources (US$ per MBtu) IEA Golden Rules 10.5 10.8 Low 11.6 13.1 Unconventional DECC Low 8.1 7.8 7.5 7.2 6.9 6.6 6.6 6.6 Central 11.0 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.0 11.5 11.5 11.5 High 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.5 16.5 OBR 9.27 8.97 8.53 8.15 7.84 7.60 Source: IEA (20lza), DECC (2012g), HM Treasury (2012) Energy security Managing fluctuating demand and supply Annual gas supply forecast 120 100 Actual Forecast 100 80 80 60 560 40 40 20 20 I UKCS Traditional I Norway LNG Continent Annual demand including exports Import dependency Source: Based on National Gnd (20ol2) UK carbon budgets and targets to 2050 900 |Actual GHG emissions 1990-2011 800 |Kyoto target (2008-2012) 12.5% reduction on 1990 700 Climate Change Act (2020 target) 34% reduction on 1990 . 600 500 ----- 400 ----- 300 Carbon budgets, reduction on 1990: 1:22% - 2008-2012 2: 28% - 2013-2016 3. 34% - 2017-2022 (42% if global agreement) 200 Climate Change Act (2050 target) 80% reduction on 1990 Proposed carbon budget: 4:50% - 2023-2027 (53% if global agreement) 100 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: Based on Bowen and Rydge (2011) SourE: Granthan Inste for Cimate Change (UK dash'tor smat ga) Businessgas4u MtCO,e Prices (S/MBtu) 2002/03 2004/05 ZO/9007 60/8007 | 1 2012/13 2014/15 BLUBLOZ 2020/21 2022/23 2024/25 2026/27 6ZRZOZ (oc) juawaunba uodwi

Gas - Generated Power Market

shared by Warner9 on Jun 27
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Discovery of shale gas resources in European countries, including the UK, has led to calls for its exploitation.

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