2013 Business Horoscope

BUSINESS HOROSCOPE 2013 Are you curious about what 2013 has in store for your hotel, shop or the general economy? We've peered into our crystal ball to reveal a few predictions for the coming year.... OVERALL ECONOMY PREDICTIONS 2013 The British Chamber of Commerce predicts modest but positive GDP growth of 1.0% in 2013. • Their original more positive forecasted growth of 1.2% earlier in 2012 was downgraded due to a deteriorating international environment with growth forecasts for world trade being cut as well as an increasing likely hood of further austerity measures due to disappointing public finance figures that indicate reducing the budget deficit will take longer than planned. Household consumption will grow more strongly in 2013 increasing by 1.1%. • Business investment is expected to grow by 4.3% in 2013. • Employment - Unemployment is expected to a peak of 2.650 million (8.1% of the workforce) in Q4 2013. This presents a moderate rise in the number of jobless people in the UK. THE HOTEL SECTOR LONDON London's status as one of leading global cities means it can attract people from all around the world, including those from emerging markets whose economies continue HOTEL to prosper, despite this we should expect a weaker hotel market in 2013, as the inevitable Olympic hangover kicks in. The surge in new supply during 2012 and 2013 may bring down occupancy levels but we do not expect these temporary factors to hold London back for long. • In 2012 events like the Queens Diamond Jubilee and the Olympics helped to drive a RevPAR (Revenue per available room) to a record high of £114.71. • In 2013 RevPAR is expected to drop down to £106.42 as a weaker economy and a recoil effect of the Olympics take effect. OTHER REGIONS In the UK regions, the picture is different. Here demand is more dependent on the domestic economy, squeezed by high inflation and the aftermath of the financial crisis. For 2013 we expect which has been OCcupancy and ADR (Average daily rates) hevenue per room is still 10% below Delow 70% Occupancy rates, hoteliers have been unable to pass price declines of 3.6% and 3.5% respectively, giving a RevPAR 2007 level. Despite near (Revenue per increases through the market. We expect revenue per room and rates to remain broadly flat in 2013, as they have since 2009. available гоom) drop of 7.2%. THE RETAIL INDUSTRY Retail Sales Growth Forecasts by Sector 2013 Value (nominal) I Volume (real) 3.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 Fashion Betricals Source: BDO Sunday trading - It's widely expected that 2013 will favour longer opening hours. Growth - Trading conditions will remain far from easy for most, with sales growth of only 2-3% expected. Rise of the designer outlet – Outlet centres at set to grow in popularity, with the opening of the London Designer Outlet at Wembley. Set to Rival Bicester Village. Location, location, location Competition for prime locations will reach record levels. Planning permission reform- Changes in planning permissions will allow homeowners to build extensions without permission & could provide a significant boost for the DIY market. Small Stores over department stores - Flexible store formats are set to increase. Department stores are particularly more likely to open smaller format stores. 4G Technology - 4G Tech will further boost the already strong mobile shopping market. SMALL DETAILS ABOUT OTHER INDUSTRIES • The Service Sector - By far the largest sector in the UK economy accounting for 77% of total output. In 2013 it is forecasted to grow by 1.4%. • The Manufacturing Industry - Accounting for 10.5% of the British economy, 2013 is predicated to show modest positive growth of 0.8%. • The Construction Sector - Construction output is expected to contract slightly by 1.4% in 2013. This infographic is by: Sources: http://www.pwc.co.uk/hospitality-leisure/uk-hotels-forecast /overview-november-2013.jhtml http://www.britishchambers.org.uk/press-office/press-releas es/bcc-economic-forecast-uk-growth-upgraded-for-2012-bu t-revised-down-for-2013-and-2014.html#.UMm9kHexl8E K United Kapital Working Capital For Your Busines http://static.bdo.uk.com/assets/documents/2012/11/Retail_ Forecasts 2013 pdf www.unitedkapital.co.uk