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How Many Cars Are Scrapped Every Year?

[email protected] 03333 44 99 50 ScrapCarComparison.co.uk How many cars are scrapped every year? Like all European Member States, the UK must calculate and report its performance against the European End of Life Vehicle Directive. The chart below shows the number of cars that the UK has reported as scrapped since the year 2006. A number of aspects need to be understood to be able to make sense of the data as presented How Many Vehicles Like Mine Have Been Recycled USA 12 Million Vehicles Number China 1.6 Million Vehicles of cars scrapped annually* U.K. 2.1 Million Vehicles 2006 2007 2008 2009 8.5 Million Vehicles 2010 Europe 2011 Firstly, the Government only has visibility of the scrap cars that are notified to it. In theory, every car scrapped will have had a "Certificate of Destruction" (COD) raised against it and therefore its data will be held by the UK Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA). It would be relatively easy to ask the DVLA to generate a report of the number of COD's that had been issued, giving a realistic number to report back to the EU. Sadly not all cars that are scrapped are issued with a Certificate of Destruction and it is not therefore possible for the UK to rely solely on COD statistics. The UK Govt communicates with all of the Author- ised Treatment Facilities (ATF's), requesting details of all the cars they treated in a given year and this yields a further number of cars. Some vehicles are issued with a Notification of Destruction and these too are added to the pot as are vehicles that are notified to DVLA by letter for example. Whilst this increases the number of vehicles to report to the EU, the actual number of vehicles scrapped in a given year remains a mystery with estimates of up to 2m cars scrapped per year, the UK may be greatly un- derstating its position. COMPARE SCRAP CAR PRICES NOW! 03333 44 99 50 Notes on each year's data : In the year 2006, the recycling industry came to terms with the requirement to issue COD's and there- fore the number issued were significantly lower than expected. The situation has improved in subse- quent years but still fall short of the expected number of vehicles scrapped. The reported numbers peaked in 2008/09 and this is due to the UK scrappage scheme which was introduced by the then Labour Government as a measure to stimulate activity in the economy (which was in recession) by subsidising sales of new cars. This had the effect of increasing the numbers of COD's issued since the subsidy could only be claimed on presentation of a COD In 2010, COD numbers fell back and reflected a quiet period after the scrappage scheme which it was felt had the effect of scrapping cars early, leaving future years bereft of cars to scrap. Various methods have been used to attempt to estimate how many certificates of destruction should be issued annually, all methods predict far higher volumes than actual. New Car Sales Data versus Declared ELV's 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 EVL's 995,569 1,138,496 1,210,294 1,327,517 1,157,438 New Car Sels 2,439,717 4,344,864 2,404.007 2,131,795 1,994,999 2.030.846 1,941,253 2,044,609 How many cars are scrapped in a year (Method 1) The End of Life Vehicle Directive introduced a Certificate of Destruction (COD) that is used as a way to fulfil to basic requirements: Firstly it officially signals that the vehicle against which it was issued had been scrapped, closing that vehicles' record with the vehicle licensing authority and ending any association between the last owner and the vehicle. Secondly it acts as a trigger point for recycling target calculation, i.e. counting the number of COD's issued gives the number of scrapped cars that need to be recycled 85%. Issuing a COD was a new practice and as such took time to be adopted, both by the recycling industry and by last owners and as such the numbers of COD's issued were initially below what might be expected. This however throws up another issue, just how many cars are scrapped in a year? How many COD's should be expected? A number of theories exist as to how the number can be calculated and a number of studies have been conducted, some more complex than others. We'll look at a few of those here. In Year Car Sales This theory suggests that the number of cars scrapped in a year is closely related to the number of new cars sold in the same year. In principle it sounds reasonable that if a number of new cars enter the market and the number of cars as a whole stays roughly the same (as recorded by DVLA annual census data) then a similar number of cars should be scrapped. The chart below shows the number of new cars sold each year with the corresponding number of COD's issued. As can be seen, there seems little correlation between the Sales curve and the ELV line, to the extent that they actually move in opposite directions. We should remember that 2009/10 were affected by the scrappage scheme both in terms of new car sales and scrap car volumes. Officeial ELV and New Car Sales Volumes 2,800,000 Sales ELV's 2,100,000 1,400,000 70,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Predicting scrapped Volumes (Method 2) There's a belief in the scrap car trade that the average age on an End of Life Vehicle is 13 years. It stands to reason that some cars will be younger when scrapped, perhaps due to crash damage, and some will be more than 13 years old when scrapped. However if we use the 13 year average age as an indicator, it can give a rough estimate of the number of cars we will likely see scrapped in a given year, based on the number of cars that were sold 13 years ago. For example, in 2000, 2,221,647 new cars were sold, if they last the average 13 years, then they will be scrapped in 2013. We cannot expect this to be exactly the case but we should see a good propor- tion of them scrapping around that timeline. So as an indication of arisings to be expected, this approach gives a rough estimate of the coming market, as shown in the chart below. New Car Sales Projected as ELVS 2,800,000 | New Car Sales 2,100,000 Expected as ELVS 1,400,000 700,000 1990 2001 2015 2019 1992 1995 2022 2025 2004 2007 2010 2013 ScrapCarComparison.co.uk 03333 44 99 50 www.scrapcarcomparison.co.uk [email protected]

How Many Cars Are Scrapped Every Year?

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Scrap Car Comparison has been in the scrap car business for many years. Our company is one of the leading established scrap car firms that offer the best prices throughout the UK. Our scrap car compa...

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