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The past, present and future of money

THE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE OF MONEY AN ENVISIONING TECHNOLOGY TIMELINE Money is a series of networked technologies. From beads to gold, it has changed shape, and from changing hands to routing data, its exchange has accelerated, expanded & #T multiplied. The internet has unlocked vast networks, new behaviors and inventive systems that are redefining the concept of value. WHAT ARE TECHNOLOGIES? WHAT ARE NETWORKS? Technologies are mannologies gre how we collectivety Networks are interactions between technologies and individuals. Social constructs, like school or entire economies, are governed by the arrangements of networks solutions. From to building ng bridges, t taming fire solve systemic problems O TOPOLOGIES O POWER Takes different shapes TRENDS Describe shifts in power O EXAMPLES Reveal arrangements between nodes CENTRALIZED DECENTRALIZED DISTRIBUTED O Networks where nodes connect through dense centres O Networks where nodes connect in clusters O Networks where nodes connect independently O Ordered distribution of power O That favor the connected few A Euros Governments Banks O Irregular distribution of power O That favor the selective individual O Facebook Credits WoW Gold Bondsy Stock markets O Horizontal distribution of power O That favor the whole of the network A Algorithmic trading Bitcoin M-Pesa Bartering Before money, goods were traded directly between individuals With money, our ancestors offset symbolic value of goods in space and time. Instead of trading a chicken directly for ae fish, now they could trade the chicken for © money, and the money for fish (or anything else of similar value) Commodity money Gold, rice, salt, copper, even peppercorns - intrinsic value is given to certain materials to be used as intermediaries between trade points The emergence of nation-states concentrates power around central, regional currencies Fiat money Paper, coins and cheques - items without intrinsic value- emerge as sp standards for global trade bolic Access to credit allows nations, trade routes and companies to grow while concentrating power Credit As systems of trust evolve, a network of lenders begins to develop. They provide resources to borrowers with interest In great symbiosis, banks and governments power the global economy to unforeseen prosperity Banks By connecting lenders with borrowers, banks create new markets and establish themselves as predominant Atop extraordinary wealth, centralized institutions become the de facto standard for governance economic intermediaries Stocks & Bonds By allowing investment in equity stakes of governments and incorporated business, stocks and bonds accelerate the capitalization of centrally organized institutions The globalization of money and trade culminates with the internet, creating a financial network of unprecedented scale, complexity and richness Global real-time communications Transatlantic cables, communication satellites, telephones accelerate the globalization of trust WORLD POPULATION IN BILLIONS #2 Modern money is a delicate high-speed interplay between stocks, bonds, insurance, securities, derivatives, exchange rates and speculation. Algorithms and complex systems control global finance networks, paving the way for an. Should online user growth (3% yearly) accompany population grouth (according to UN data), neariy 90% of the world population will be online by 2063 10 1980 INTELLIGENT& AUTONOMOUS FOTURE OF MONEY 1990 2000 Biased timeline of our history + 2010 2020 Speculative timeline of our future + 2030 2040 2050 2060 OFFLINE ÖNLINE VECTOR Pouer, or the abity to infuence the behaior of others, is je pemonest ahit. Eetie cconomier are autjected to he pour shta ofpolle, ane qun policy is often govemed by the awhims of technological progree. Theae ctora indicate Akely futans shaped by emerging tectnologies, as uell as the directionaty of the pouer ahit. Networks are gaining the previously institutional ability to develop and operate currencies - with few intermediaries or boundaries Banking APIS Attention economies Specifies software interactions online, and in banking, allows third-party applications to connect to the consumer's account When attention is paid, spent, given, taken - or transacted - it becomes influence, which then develops as capital and power to consumers and citizens over institutions Computers are masters of speed and complexity, which, coupled with the right algorithms, are accelerating transactions away from our grasp. 000 Microfinance Provide banking services to small businesses and entrepreneurs who otherwise have no real access them Distributed currencies Alternative currency systems based on shared beliefs their value Intention economy Consumers guide the market by directly signaling their intentions of future purchases Peer-to-peer economies Production transaction of goods occurs directly between individuals, not companies Crowdfunding Draws on the power of crowds and networks to People are coalescing and demanding free, real-time access to their transaction information in order to reclaim financial decisions from institutions. solicit investments for particular projects. Collaborative consumption Digital wallets An economic model geared toward developing access (not ownership), where consumers lend, swap, barter, share and gift products Are moving a host of new currencies and economies by simplifying transactions Individuals are leveraging the internet able to opt out of consumption-centric currency systems. This phenomenon has the potential to upend the infrastructure of retail and develop businesses that would never exist without the support of corporations. #3 Our brief is based on crowdsourcing and deep research, designed to push you ahead. For a broad perspective of the future, evolution and impact of a brand new concept of value, read the full report, available for free at: ENVISIONING.O/MONEY MONEY Envisioning is an independent research foundation based in Brazil. ENVISIONING Our global team of academics, designers and hackers study technology to understand accelerating change. TECHNO LOGY RESEARCH FOUNDALION We share our work with our own tools, methodology and design. HISTORICAL BIBLIOGRAPHY FUTURE STUDIES BIBLIOGRAPHY SELGIN, George (2003). Adaptive Learning and the Transition to Fiat Money, The Economic Journal 113 (484): 147-65. GORE, AL. The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change. Ransom House, 2013. FERGUSON, Niall (2008). The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World. The Penguin Press HC. W. B, Arthur. The Nature of Technology: What t Is and How it Buolves. Simon and Schuster, 2009. ROOVER, Raymond De (1942). Money, Banking, and Credit in Medieval Bruges. The Journal of Economic History, 2, pp 52-65. BAUMAN, Zygmunt. Liquid Modenity. Cambridge: Polity, 2000. WESSEL, David. A Source of our Bubbie Trouble, Wall Street Journal, 17 January 2008. BERTALANFFY, L V. General System Theory: Foundations, Development, Applications. George Beaziller Inc, 2013. DAVIES, Glyn. A History of Money: From Ancient Times to the Present Day (Cardiff, 1994). BOURDIEU, P. Language and Symbolic Power. Havard University Press, 1991. WILLIAMS, Jonathan with Joe Cribb and Eliza beth Errington (eds.). Money: A History (London, 1997). DONELLA, M. Thinking in Systems: A Primer. Chelsea Green Publishing, 2013. HALE, John. The Cloilization of Europe in the Renaissance (London, 1993). GIDDENS, Antony. The Consequences of Modernity. Polity: Cambridge, 1990. ROOVER, Raymond De. The Medici Bank: Organization and Monagement, Joumal of Economic History, 6, 1 (May 1946), pp. 24-52. HARVEY, David. The Condition of Postmodernity: An Enquiry into the Origins of Cuitural Change. São Pauloc Loyola, 1992. JAMES E; MOCLELLAN III; DORN, H. Science and Technology in Worid History: An Introduction. Baltimore and London: Johns Hopkins University Presa, 1999. FERGUSON, Niall and WYMAN, Oliver. The Evolution of Financial Seruices: Moking Sense of the Past, Preparing for the Future (Landon / New York, 2007). NEAL, Larry. The Rise of Financial Capitalsm: International Capital Markets in the Age of Reason (Cambridge, 1990). pp 1-20. KELLY, K. What technology wants New York: Vilking Penguin, 2010. LATOUR, Bruno, and WOOLGAR, Steve. Laboratory life: the construction of scientific facts. Princeton, N.J: Princeton University Press, 1986. LINDKVIST, M. The Atack of the Unexpected: A Guide to Surprises and Uncertainty. Marshall Cavendish Business, 2011. LIPOVETSKY, Gilles; SEBASTIER, Charles. Hypermodem Times. Polity Press, 2006. SCHAEFFER, ROBERT K. Understanding Giobalization: The Social Consequences of Political, Economic, and Environmental Change Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield, 2003. SILVER, N. The Signal and the Noise: Why So Mony Predictions Foil– but Some Don't Penguin Press HC, 2012 SMITH, M. R; MARX, L. Does Technology Drive History? The Dilemma of Technological Determinism. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 1994.

The past, present and future of money

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A tide of technology — cryptocurrencies, P2P economies, payment APIs — is reshaping the world before our very eyes. We rarely memorize, wait in line, rewind, unfold, print or phone anymore.

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