Transcript

The Minority Report: Criminology's New Frontier

MINORITY REPORT, IN REAL LIFE? CRIMINOLOGY'S NEW FRONTIER NEW SOPHISTICATED "PRECOGNITION" SYSTEMS ARE ACCURATELY PREDICTING CRIME BEFORE IT HAPPENS. HOW FAR AWAY ARE WE FROM A WORLD LIKE "MINORITY REPORT"? BIRTH OF DATA- DRIVEN POLICING THE BEGINNING NEW CHALLENGES IN 1993 THE NYPD IMPLEMENTED POLICE DE PARTMENTS STILL FACE MASSIVE BUDGET SHORTFALLS. A COMPSTAT: A TECHNIQUE THAT RAISES POLICE HOW CAN A REDUCED POLICE FORCE ALSO REDUCE ACCOUNTA BILITY BY ANALYZING PA ST CRIME DATASETS DECREASE IN FELONIES CRIME? PREDICTIVE POLICING THE SOLUTION MAY LIE IN REVOLUTIONARY NEW FORECASTING SYSTEMS HOW DO MAP HOTSPOTS THESE PRECOG: BURGLARY LIKELY ADDRESS: 3200 BLOCK SYSTEMS TIMESTAMP: 4:00 PM DATE: 7.16.2011 WORK? MAP PAST CRIME EMPLOY REAL- TIME DATA POLICE CAN NOW PREDICT CRIME AT A SPECIFIC TIME & PLACE ALGORITHM BASED- DATA PROCESSING MINORITY REPORT, IN ACTION RICHMOND, VA SCAN ID: 158 304.0 -D.1 BY 2003, POLICE WERE ANTICI- PATING THE TIME, LOCATION, AND NATURE OF INCIDENTS 47% 246% $15K DECREASE IN INCREASE IN WEAP. SAVED IN RANDOM GUNFIRE ONS SEIZED PERSONNEL MEMPHIS, TN SCAN ID: 158 223.0 -D.2 CREATED BLUE CRUSH IN 2010, USING PREDICTIVE ANA LYTICS TO LOCATE "HOTSPOT" AREAS IN REAL TIME 31% 836% $1BIL DECEASE IN RETURN ON INVESTMENT SAVED ANNUALLY CRIME IN 3 MONTHS LOS ANGELES, CA SCAN ID: 158 223.0 - D.2 NEW ALGORITHMS DEVELOPED BY RESEARCHERS AT UCLA CAN POINT POLICE TO POTENTIAL SUSPECTS WHEN VIOLENCE ERUPTS BETWEEN GANGS HOW IT COULD THE COMPUTER MODEL I IDENTIFY THE 3 GANGS MOST YI LIKELY TO BE INVOLVED? WORKS SIMPLE WITH THE CHANCE: ALGORITHM: RESEARCHERS STARTED WITH 10 YEARS OF DATA: 1,000+ GANG-RELATED CRIMES IN LA AN ALGORITHM WAS CREATED MIMICKING THE PATTERNS OF THE DATASET 17% 80% (6\ KEY DATA WAS REMOVED (E.G. THE NAME OF ONE OR BOTH OF THE GANGS) ACCURACY ACCURACY ARE WE ON A SLIPPERY SLOPE? WHILE TOM CRUISE ISN'T SWINGING THROUGH YOUR WINDOW AND ARRESTING YOU PRE-CRIME (YET), OUR WORLD IS RAPIDLY CHANGING CAN WE PUNISH INDIVIDUALS BEFORE THEY COMMIT A CRIME? OUR RIGHTS ARE IN JEO PARDY, AND SOCIETY NEEDS TO QUICKLY BALANCE P OWERFUL N EW TECHNOLOGIES WITH CIVIL LIBERTIES. CRIMINOLOGY.COM REFERENCES: HTTP://www-o3.IBM.COM/PRESS/US/EN/PRESSRELEASE/32169.WSS HTTP://ARTICLES.LATIMES.COM/2011/OCT/31/ LOCAL/LA-ME-UCLA-GANG-COMPUTER-20111101 HTTP://GIZMODO.COM/5517231/CRIME WHAT WEVE LEARNED.HTML -PREDIC TION-SOFTWARE-IS-H HTTP://www.CITY-JOURNAL.ORG/HTML/9_2 RE-IS-HERE-AND-ITS-A-VERY-BAD-IDEA HTTP://www.SLATE.COM/ARTICLES/NEWS AND POLITICS/CRIME/2011/01/TIME COPS.HTML HTTP://www.INFORMATIONWEEK.COM/NEWS/SOFTWARE/BI/226100087 HTTP://NEWS.CHANGE.ORG/STORIES/FLORIDA-TO-PUNISH-KIDS-FOR-CRIMES-THEY-HAVENT-COMMITTED-YET HTTPS://www.NCJRS.GOV/PDFFILES1/NIJ/GRANTS/230404.PDF THIS WORK IS LICENSED UNDER A CREATIVE COMMONS LICENSE.

The Minority Report: Criminology's New Frontier

shared by gvoakes on Dec 07
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New sophisticated "precognition" systems are accurately predicting crime before it happens. How far away are we from a world like "Minority Report"?

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Criminology

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Technology
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