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CES 2011 and Early Adopter Technology Costs

THE VICIOUS CYCLE OF EARLY ADOPTION AN EVOLVING WORLD OF ELECTRONICS AND THEIR PRICES: A historical look at today's popular products • An estimated 13.5% of the U.S. population qualifies as "early adopters" • Every year the latest and greatest technologies are introduced and of technology, according to Everett Rogers, who coined the phrase. upgrades are made to popular products. Deciding when the right time to buy can a challenge for consumers who save up for that new technological advancement. GAME CONSOLES Atari 2600 Xbox 360 Elite Price at first release date (1977): $199 Price at first today's popular product at release (2005): Xbox 360 Elite $479 Today's cost (adjusted for inflation) That same products price today (2011): Xbox 360 S $719 Changing Features: 120GB to 250GB $299 MOBILE PHONES DynaTAC 8000x Apple iPhone Price at first today's popular product at release (2007): iPhone Original (with 2 year contract) Price at first release date (1983): $3,995 $599 Today's cost (adjusted for inflation) That same products price today (2011): iPhone 4 (with 2 year contract) $8,776 Changing Features: 8GB to 32GB $299 MP3 PLAYERS Rio PMP300 Apple iPod Price at first today's popular product at release (2001): iPod First Generation Price at first release date (1998): $199 $399 614528 Today's cost (adjusted for inflation) That same products price today (2011): iPod Classic $267 Changing Features: 5GB to 160GB Rio- $249 When the original iPod was unveiled in 2001, it cost $400 for 5 gigabytes of storage (up to 1,000 songs). Today's iPod costs $249 with 160 gigabytes of storage (up to 40,000 songs). TELEVISION SETS JVC 19" Color TV VIZIO 37" LCD HDTV Price at first today's popular product at release (2005): Price at first release date (1979): $560 $1,499 Today's cost (adjusted for inflation) That same products price today (2011): $1,688 Changing Features: 1,000:1 contrast ratio to 50,000:1 contrast ratio $449 PERSONAL COMPUTERS Osborne 1 Dell Inspiron Price at first today's popular product at release (2004): Dell Inspiron 9100 Price at first release date (1981): $1,795 $1,549 Today's cost (adjusted for inflation) That same products price today (2011): Dell Inspiron 15 Intel $4,320 Changing Features: 64MB memory to 4 GB Memory $399 DESKTOP MAC Apple II iMac Price at first today's popular product at release (1998): Price at first release date (1977): $2,638 $1,299 Today's cost (adjusted for inflation) That same products price today (2011): $9,525 Changing Features: 233 MHz processor and 4GB hard drive to 3.06 GHz and 500GB hard drive $1,199 TABLET COMPUTER Apple Newton Message Pad Apple iPad Wi-Fi Price at first today's popular product at release (2010): Price at first release date (1993): $699 $499 Today's cost (adjusted for inflation) That same products price today (2011): $1,058 $499 EBOOK READER Sony Librie EBR Amazon Kindle яоNY Price at first today's popular product at release (2007): Price at first release date (2004): $2,450 Amazon Kindle First Generation $399 Today's cost (adjusted for inflation) That same products price today (2011): Amazon Kindle Second Generation $2,838 Changing Features: 10.3 ounces and 200 books to 8.5 ounces and 3,500 books $139 THE COST OF EARLY ADOPTION: Avoiding new technology when it will be obsolete in 6 months • The best time to buy new tech is within a few months of its initial release. That gives the manufacturer time to do any recalls, product updates, and other potential fixes that are needed so that you don't have to worry too much. "I can attest to the fact that the technology road is bumpy. There is always change and improvement, and there is always someone who bought a product before a particular cutoff date and misses the new price or the new operating system or the new whatever. This is life in the technology lane. If you always wait for the next price cut or to buy the new improved model, you'll never buy any technology product, because there is always something better and less expensive on the horizon." • Early adopters often pay the cost, in cash and quality, for being first in line, but waiting too long will make consumers miss out on the best technology. Apple CEO Steve Jobs ADOPTION VS. OBSOLESCENCE Typical Obsolescence Chart Knowing the Right Time to Buy 100% 80% 60% Best Time to Buy 40% 20% 0% Introduction Rapid Adoption Saturation 2 4 10 11 12 Month - Obsolescence of Old Technology - Market Share of Old Technology Market Share of New Technology "As adoption of the new technology continues to increase, the rate of obsolescence tends to stabilize; however, the loss in value due to obsolescence is often dramatic." "The adoption of a new technology starts slowly because, when it is first introduced, a new technology is usually expensive, unfamiliar, and imperfect." Founder & President of BCRI Inc. Will consumers want to wait on these hot products and new advancements being unveiled at the 2011 CES (Consumer Electronics Show)? iPad 2 3D TV There is much debate over whether or not Apple will announce the release date or key specifications of the second generation iPad at CES, but consumers are watching and waiting. The iPad is one product no one wants to wait on adopting, whether or not the price drops. 2010 was the rise of 3D TVs and at last years CES these TVs were more of a teaser than anything. This year they are expected to dominate the show and are expected to have more advancements such as wireless internet capabilities. In addition, announcements of price drops are expected. Verizon "Apple Phone" Apps The highly anticipated Verizon iPhone is this year's most sought after product. For months, and even years, rumors have floated around, but finally there is proof the iPhone will be going to Verizon. The only question is "when?" Its price is expected to stay the same with a new 2 year contract. 2011 will be the year of Apps. Technology will give consumers the power to do more with their smartphones and tablet computers than ever before. Both Android and Apple will showoff their best apps on the market. veri on Sources: smartmoney.com I data.bls.gov I minneapolisfed.org consumeraffairs.com I apple.com I reviews.cnet.com l ipodhistory.com vizio.com I samsclub.com I pcworld.com I oldcomputers.net pcmag.com teardown.com I amazon.com I financiallyfit.yahoo.com bcri.com unplggd.com I cesweb.org savings.com

CES 2011 and Early Adopter Technology Costs

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On the eve of CES (Consumer Electronics Show) 2011, we wanted to examine how early adopters pay a premium for being "first" when it comes to the latest, greatest, newest, coolest. For gadget geeks, C...

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