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3D Printing: How Long Til The Revolution?

3D Printing How Long till the Revolution? 3D Printing (also known as 'Additive Manufacturing') is where a physical object is created from a virtual 3D model by laying down successive layers of material. Sounds complicated? Put simply - if you can design it, a 3D printer can build it. 3D Printers can make anything from: REPLACEMENT CUPS SHOES JAWBONES 3D printing is currently in the hands of three distinct user groups: INDUSTRY HOBBYISTS JAY LENO Industrial uses for 3D printing involve rapid prototyping and rapid manufacturing. This is where parts or products are quickly manufactured for use in: Breakdown of Worldwide Rapid Prototyping Use 7.7% 31.7% 5.5% Motor vehicles Consumer products 8.2% Business machines Medical 8.6% Academic Aerospace Government/ Military 8.8% Others |18.4% 11.2% Hobbyists can use 3D printing to make... whatever they want. Including: GUITARS GEARS GUNS Gwhaaat? But hobbyists usually use 3D printers fo... 4% 5% Functional models 5% 14% Artistic items Spare parts to devices 6% For research/educational purposes Direct part production 14 % 7% Covers and such for devices Presentation models 8% Furniture and household decoration 13% Used for pattern / in molds Visual aids 11% Other 13% Jay Leno uses 3D printing to make replacement car parts... ...and tiny heads This is Roger's diffusion of innovations.. 100 % Market Share % of people adopting technology 75 25 Innovators Early Adopters 13.5% Early Majority Laggards 16% Late 2.5% Majority 34% 34% is a theory that explains at what rate new technologies are adopted by users. If we look at the adoption rate of Personal Computers (PCs) in the US we can see 'Roger's diffusion of innovations' in action. Here's the number of PC's per person in the US since their inception: PC's Per Person (U5) 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Early Majority Innovators Laggards Early Adopters Late Majority In 1975 there was In 2010 there was 0.0002 PC's per person in the US. 1 PC per person in the US. Early 'microcomputers' PC use is mainstream. Everybody has been exposed, in some way, to the were the preserve of industries and dedicated hobbyists. PC. It is still 'early days' for 3D printing. In a recent survey conducted by 'Statistical Studies of Peer Production' about the 3D printing hobbyist community, only 350 respondents could be found. This is an indicator of the small size of this burgeoning community and places hobbyists firmly in the 'innovators' stage of Roger's diffusion of innovations. 3D Printing is Here % Market Share 100 % of people adopting technology 75 50 25 Early Adopters 13.5% Innovators Laggards Early Majority 34% Late Majority 34% 2.5% 16% If we use the adoption rate of PCs as a base to map the possible trajectory of the 3D printer... 3D Printers Per Person (US) 1.6 1.4 We are here 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2005 2010 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 ..we can see how we may have to wait till 2040 before there is a 3D printer in every home. BUT revolutions are a hard thing to predict. "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." "There is no reason why anyone would want a computer in their "This telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of home." communication." Internal Memo Thomas Watson Ken Olsen Western Union - 1876 Chairman of IBM - 1943 Digital Equipment - 1977 A dısruptive technology? Individuals and corporations who profit from selling consumers objects that could be easily 3D printed have the most to lose. Their worries are 1. Current Copyright Law does not stop an individual from downloading a copyrighted design. 2. Current Copyright Law forbids an individual from reproducing a copyrighted design. How can this be enforced? If we use music downloads as a comparison The status of 3D Printing is currently like the original Napster. In the future it will be more like iTunes. 2 Years napster iTunes (1999-2001) Anybody can download any copyrighted material can be downloaded free of charge. A fee is paid to download copyrighted material. Copyright owners receive nothing. Copyright owners are paid per download. Oh, and one more thing: 3D printing is only gonna get more awesome. Researchers at the University of Oxford have built an experimental 3D Printer known as an MBE. MBE = Molecular Beam Epitaxy This printer can print parts one molecule at a time. It'll be kinda like a Star Trek replicator. So, do you want in on the ground floor of a technological revolution? Check out these sites... Build your own Printer Buy your own Printer Get a 3D Design Printed Instructions: MakerBot INDUSTRIES OBJET RepRap Components: STRATASYS Farnell Ultimaker Sources: -can-3d-print-at-home/ prototyping worldwidyZureks.png w/projections/natsum-T3.html Market Share % Market Share 9

3D Printing: How Long Til The Revolution?

shared by joehale on Feb 18
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Electrical component distributors, Farnell, take a look at 3D printing, and the expected growth and use of 3D printed products.




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