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1984 Orange Bowl

NERRASKA MIAMI (12-0) VS | (10-1) O 1984 ORANGE BOW CASE STUDY presented by CHAMPIONSHIP ANALYTICS & LOCKR ORANGE BOWL The Nebraska vs. Miami game, played in 1984 at the Orange Bowl in Miami, FL, is one of college football's classic games. Nebraska scored a touchdown in the 4th quarter, cutting Miami's lead to 31-23. While a 1 PT conversion is the conventional play in this situation, CAI concludes that Nebraska could have increased their chances of winning the national championship by going for a 2 PT conversion. Below are the scenarios that could have played out with the conversion attempts given that the game played out as it did with the subsequent Nebraska TD being the only score. This assumes that 100% make of 1 PT are successful and 50% of 2 PT conversions are good. GAME PARAMETERS DOWN & DISTANCE: EXTRA POINT | 3 YARDS TO GO GAME TIME REMAINING: 4TH QUARTER | 6: SS TOM HOWARD OFFENSE: NEBRASKA DEFENSE: MIAMI OSBORNE SCORE: NEBRASKA 23 | MIAMI 31 SCHNELLENBERGER BALL ON: MIAMI 3 HEAD COACH HEAD COACH SAFEST DECISION TD ONE: 1 PT TD TWO: 1 PT OUTCOME: 100% TIE | POSSIBLE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP RESPONSE: WIN TITLE, BUT GOES AGAINST COACH OSBORNE'S PRINCIPLES AND POTENTIAL CRITICISM EXPECTED. COACH OSBORNE'S DECISION TD ONE: 1 PT TD TWO: 2 PT OUTCOME: 50/50 SHOT OF NATIONAL CHAM PIONSHIP RESPONSE: SOME CRITICISM, BUT IN THE SPIRIT OF TRUE COMPETITION, THE ONLY DECISION THAT COULD HAVE BEEN MADE GIVEN THE PRIOR 1 PT ATTEMPT. CAI'S RECOMMENDATION TD ONE: 2 PT TD TWO: 1PT|2 PT ACCORDINGLY OUTCOME: 75% CHANCE OF NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP (50% WIN, 25% TIE) RESPONSE: THIS IS THE OPTIMAL STRATEGY. THIS STRATEGY GIVES THE TEAM AS GOOD OF A CHANCE OF WINNING AS ANY OTHER STRATEGY WHILE LEAVING THE TIE IN PLAY. IF NEBRASKA HAD TIED THE GAME AT 31 TO 31 WITH A TWO POINT CONVERSION AFTER BEING DOWN BY 14 POINTS AND HAD MADE THE PRIOR ATTEMPT AT WINNING THE GAME, IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN THAT NEBRASKA WOULD HAVE WON THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP. #12 | TURNER GILL TIP! #2 | KENNY CALHOUN #28 | JEFF SMITH GE CRITICAL DECISION NATIONAL TITLE ODDS (WIN| TIE): 1 PT 18% | 2 PT 23% CHANGE IN WIN ODDS: 5% PLAY OUTCOME: MADE 1 PT EXTRA POINT | MISSED 2 PT ON NEXT TD # 2 FINAL SCORE: NEBRASKA 30 | MIAMI 31 SCORE BY QUARTERS TEAM FINAL MIAMI 17 1 니 31 NEBRASKA 14 13 30 CAI'S SCORE BY QUARTERS TEAM FINAL MIAMI 17 14 31 NEBRASKA 14 15 32 GAME STATISTICS MIAMI NEB FIRST DOWNS 22 24 RUSHING AT TEMPTS 28 56 RUSHING YARDS 130 287 PASSES ATTEMPTED 35 30 PASSES COMPLETED 19 16 HAD INTERCEPTED PASSING YARDS 300 172 TOTAL OFFENSE 430 459 PUNTS | AVG. FUMBLES | LOST PENALTIES | YARDS 4| 41.8 1| 1 13 | 101 3| 37.3 6| 1 4 | 51 CONCLUSION Taking into account all of the possible outcomes, the CAI simulator concluded that the odds of winning the national championship in a manner consistent with the team's principles would have increased 5% by deploying this new strategy. With the CAI Game Book, these decisions would have been pre-programmed for the team with a chart showing the recommended strategy. Utilizing such an approach could have changed the outcome of one of the greatest football games ever played. CAI LOCKR CHAMPIONSHIP A N A LYTI C S www.CHAMPIONSHIPANALYTICS.COM www.GETLOCKR.COM GAME STATISTICS PROVIDED BY WWw.ORANGEBOWL.ORG 410 50 40 20 Fouseld

1984 Orange Bowl

shared by Birtminusernie on Apr 23
A collaboration between Lockr & Championship Analytics that looks at how Nebraska's chances of winning the 1984 Orange Bowl would have been greater with different play calling.


Lockr & CAI


Adam Birt


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