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Edelman Buenos Aires: Primary Election Report

Edelman Argentina ARGENTINA ELECTION 2015 POSITIONS TOO BE FILLED: NATIONAL DISTRICT •President and vice- president •130 Diputados nacionales. •24 Senadores nacionales. •48 Diputados Parlasur. FINAL NATIONAL SCRUTINY * President Candidate Vice-Presiden Candidate FPV- Frente para la Victoria. 38,52% (EINTL INA LA Daniel Scioli Carlos Zannini VICT RIA Frente para la Victoria 38,52% Frente Cambiemos 30,00% Mauricio Macri Gabriela Michetti pro Propuesta Republicana 24,2% Ernesto Sanz Lucas Llach UCR Unión Civica Radical 3,46% Elisa Carrió Héctor Flores cha Coalición Cívica 2,34% Una Nueva Alternativa 20,56% Sergio Massa Gustavo Sáenz Frente Renovador 14,11% Juan Manuel De la Sota Claudia Rucci Unión por Cordoba 6,46% Compromiso Federal 2,13% Ado lfo Rodríguez Saá Liliana Negre de Alonso COMPROMISO Compromiso Federal 2,13% FEDERAL Frente de Izquierda y de los Trabajadores 3,31% PARTIDO OBRERO L61% Jorge Altamira Juan Carlos Giordano Partido Obrero Nicolás del Caño Myriam Bergman PTS Partido de los Trabajadores Socialistas 170% Progresistas 3,48% Margarita Stolbizer Miguel Ángel Olaviaga gen Generación para un encuentro nacional 3,48% POLITICAL KEYS The Primaries elections allowed the Argentineans to know who will be the main players in the General elections: from initially fifteen pre- candidates formulas, finally six of them will compete in the Presidential elections, next October 25th. • The Primaries elections marked a supportive base ahead for October elections. Scioli, Macri and Massa expect to increase their votes in October. Therefore, they should retain their captive vote, while seducing those who did not supported them in these Primaries, improving what they did in this instance. • The Frente Para la Victoria party, with the formula Scioli- Zannini, won in almost all provinces, except in Buenos Aires City, Córdoba, Mendoza and San Luis districts. Looking ahead to the general elections, the officialism challenge will be to conquer the Peronist vote that UNA has, mostly represented by De la Sota and the not Kirchnerism vote that Massa has. • The Cambiemos front established itself as the second national force and led to his winning fommula inside the PRO, Macri - Michetti, with the 80 % of the votes. The electoral base of Cambiemos was set at the most important urban centers: Buenos Aires, Mendoza, Córdoba and Bahía Blanca. In addition, Macri needs to go after the not Kirchnerist vote. While much of the opposition electorate that voted for Massa in 2013 had already moved to Macri before these Primaries, PRO must first succeed in convincing specially the radicalism to retain their vote inside Cambiemos. • On the other hand, the UNA front obtained ended up third and placed Massa - Sáenz as its winning couple for Generals in October. The good election of José Manuel De la Sota in the central region of the country allowed the governor of Córdoba to position himself as a competitive politician and reinforced the support possessed by Massa in the province of Buenos Aires. If Massa is pretending to have real chances of being part of the government in the next four years, he must work to gain the support of certain peronist sectors that still see Daniel Scioli as the representative the movement needs. • The left wing forces grouped in the Workers' Left Front have been strengthened in the reoent years with clear and marked critics to the national government. In this sense the victory of the candidate from Mendoza, Nicolás del Caño, over the historical Jorge Altamira is presented as a generational change at the top of the left coalition. Buenos Aires Provinçe It should be noted the surprise of María Eugenia Vidal from the PRO party, who reached 30% of the votes. While the Frente para la Victoria as a party was the most voted force, Vidal was an unknown candidate until a couple of months ago. It is crucial to understand how she does to maintain what she reached and confirm herself as the first opposite leader in the province. On the other hand, besides the internal election in the Frente Para la Victoria party was seriously threatened during the last week of the campaign, Aníbal Fernandez is the winner candidate for Governor. Julián Dominguez finished a few points below Fernández, despite having grown considerable in his vote intention during the recent weeks. Felipe Solá made a very good election and aspires to get some votes from official supporters that may be left behind by those who voted Dominguez in this election. PROVINCIAL PRIMARIES Edelman POLITICAL PARTY OR COALITION BURNOS ARR07.30s of the akatonl nagtar GOVERNOR CANDIDAT VICE GOMERNOR 0,91% CANDDATE Cambie mos Maria Egonia Vical Daniol Salvador 20.0% Julan Doming Ferando Espinoua Femte para la 18.0% Anibal Fomandoz Matin Sabatola 212% Frente Renovador Foipo Sola Dariel Arroyo 19.0% 1,66% Jame Linaros Juan Carlos P.gioao Progesista 3,20% Jorg Cebao Victoria Moto 1.2% 1,09%6 2 06% Frente de la lzquierda y bs Tabajadores Netior Prola Rnon Sobroro Crigtian Caerio Javior Homos la 1.61% 37,96% There ae Govemor olections in the following provinces: (the percentages ae over the eloctoral register) Entre Rlos: 3,20% Catamarca: 0,91% Chubut: 1,27% San Juan: 1,66% San Luis: 1,09% 1,27% Hashtag: #ArgentinaElige2015 Edelman Argentina Copyright: Copyright ©2015 Daniel J. Edelman, Inc. All rights reserved. Al information contained herein is confidential and proprietary to Daniel J. Edelman, Inc. ("Edelman"). Web: www.edelman.com.ar Contacto: Public Affairs Director/ Mariano Vila/ [email protected]

Edelman Buenos Aires: Primary Election Report

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This 2015 is an electoral year in Argentina. After twelve years of Kirchnerism, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner must leave Presidency and a new Government will be chosen to assume the National Adminis...

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