Does Predictive Policing Work?

DOEN LIMPACT OF CRIME STOPPING AI How Can Al Stop Crimes Before They Happen? PREDICTIUE POLICING Based on "broken windows" policing which targets patrols to “hotspots" with high rates of minor crime like vandalism and theft "Crime Is Like A Uirus" Disease and crime tend to cluster in geographic areas and spread through social networks "Crime Creates Crime" Minor crimes like vandalism and theft lead to more and more serious crimes The Tech Example: PREDPOL' Crime prediction software adapts existing Al models using historical crime data, including NIVERSITV OF Epidemiological models used to predict the spread of disease Forecasts hotspots for minor crimes based on recent police reports Targeting patrols down to a 500 ft area CLA Developed by LAPD & UCLA, Launched in 2008 Geological models used to predict an earthquake's aftershocks Mass Surueillance By instantly cross-referencing data from 911 calls, CCTV footage, and criminal records -Al lets police The Tech Facial Recognition act more quickly to stop crime Scans faces on CCTV cameras and photos to identify people – usually based on DMV records Example: Domain Awareness System License Plate Readers Identifies vehicles and tracks their Developed by NYPD & Microsoft, Launched in 2012 location from camera to camera DEPARTMENT ShotSpotter Listens for gunshots and automatically alerts law enforcement with a location Instantly displays information from various sources to enable faster NYPD SECURITY CAMERA VYPD reactions – more than 3.000 cameras, 911 calls, plate readers, and more Autonomous AI The Tech Ford's Self-Driving Police Car Knightscope K5 Deployed in Huntington Park, CA in 2019 Patent application filed in 2018 An autonomous robot patrols the streets - weighing in at 5'2" and 500 Ibs Designed to detect traffic violations, pursue the perpetrator until they pull over, identify the vehicle and driver, and issue a warning or ticket Notifies police of the location of "blacklisted" individuals – using license plates, mobile device identifiers, and facial recognition "There's a massive opportunity for using big data to have positive social impact... But at the same time, we need to be aware of its limitations and be honest in terms of its performance." Nuria Oliver, Chief Data Scientist at Data-Pop Alliance CC BY-SA 2.0 @esterperezbroto The Spread Of Crime-Stopping Al Who Is Already Using Crime-Predicting Al?* "publically reported to use, or have experimented with predictive software, (not an exhaustive list) City Police Departments At least 5 major cities use real-time facial recognition software 50 Over 50 police departments across the U.S.A. use PredPol More are rumored to be using the tech without public disclosure It's not just for governments UC Berkeley's Campus Police use predictive software as well State & Federal Agencies Immigration & Customs Enforcement, National Security Agency, Department of Defense, and more 300 The Northern California Regional Intelligence Center (NCRIC) grants access to predictive data to 300 cities in the region By using an intermediary, cities avoid publicly disclosure Around The World China, Denmark, Germany, India, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom have implemented predictive tools Japan is implementing a new program in anticipation of the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo TOKYO 2020 Does Predictive Policing Work? Los Angeles In its first 21 months, Chicago New York City First instituted predictive From 2015-2017, Chicago saw a surge in gun violence, policing in 1994 bringing media attention to the city's use of predictive policing In a 2017 investigation, the New York Times found that PredPol resulted in 2X the arrests as professional criminal analysts – Suggesting to a greater reduction in crime. But a few years later, property times were back up By 2003, murders the lowest since 1964 BUT, the same decrease in violent crime was seen across the country - including regions were predictive models weren't in use Nationwide Violent crime is falling, but the public hasn't noticed 1/4 to 1/3 of the highest risk individuals were involved in a violent incident in 2016 Less than 20% of the city's total gun violence involved high risk individuals From 1993-2018, the majority of Americans believed that crime increased nearly every year Roughly ½ of Americans are Over the same period, Violent crime fell by Property crime fell by listed in facial databases 51-71% 54-69% 00 accessible to the F8I MULTIPLY The Problem: Al's Data Feedback Loop Al's Flaws Marginalize Minorities African Americans are more likely to be included in facial recognition databases due to over-policing of black communities Facial recognition algorithms* are more likely to misidentify Asians, African Americans, and Native Americans *developed in the United States In a test of Amazon's facial recognition software, 28 members of Congress were falsely identified as criminals John Isakson Edward Markey Pat Roberts Sanford Bishop George Butterfield (D-Georgia) Lacy Clay (D-Missouri Mark DeSaulnier Adriano Espaillat Ruben Gallego Thomas Garrett Greg Gianforte (D-Arizona) (R-Georgia) (D-Massachusetts) (R-Kansas) (D-North Carolina) D-California) (D-New York) (R-Virginia) (R-Montana Jimmy Gomez (D-Califomia) Raúl Grijalva Steve Knight Luis Gutiérrez (D-Ilinois) Leonard Lance (R-New Jersey) John Lewis (D-Georgia) Frank LoBiondo David Loebsack David McKinley John Moolenaar (R-New Jersey) Tom Reed (R-New York) (D-Arizona) (R-Califomia) (D-lowa) (R-West Virginia) (R-Michigan) 20% of members of Congress are people of color 39% o of false matches were people of color Marc Veasey Norma Torres (D-California) Brad Wenstrup Steve Womack Bobby Rush (D-Illinois) Lee Zeldin (D-Texas) (R-Ohio) (R-Arkansas) (R-New York) When Al Is Trained On Historical Crime Data Existing bias becomes a core component in its predictive algorithms Predictions may become self-fulling, Results and enforcement as police ramp up enforcement in communities the ignore crimes that go unreported software labels as "bad" Why? According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, People are less likely to report crimes they think will go unsolved Only 43% 34% "There's a real danger, with any kind of data-driven policing, to forget that there are human beings on both sides of the equation." Violent Crime Property Crime was reported to police in 2018 Andrew Ferguson Law Professor at the University of the District of Columbia and author of The Rise Of Big Data Policing Sources: perpetuallineup.org arxiv.org/abs/1706.09847 Al is here to stay in law enforcement but at what cost? bbc.com/news/business-46017239 wired.com/2015/05/nsa-actual-skynet-program boingboing.net/2018/10/30/el-monte-and-tacoma.html pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/10/17/facts-about-crime-in-the-u-s shotspotter.com/system/content-uploads/SST FAQ_January_2018.pdf discovermagazine.com/technology/fords-robot-police-car-is-no-robocop aeon.co/essays/do-we-really-want-to-use-predictive-policing-to-stop-crime qz.com/1684279/california-police-robot-flagging-blacklisted-people-and-cars theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/09/do-algorithms-have-place-policing/596851 nbcnews.com/mach/science/how-science-helping-stop-crime-it-occurs-ncna805176 vice.com/en_us/article/neapgg/300-californian-cities-secretly-have-access-to-palantir fedscoop.com/palantirs-new-fedramp-certification-critical-future-work-civilian-agencies cpr.unu.edu/ai-global-governance-turning-the-tide-on-crime-with-predictive-policing.html Presented by: hoplofobia.info/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Social-Networks-and-the-Risk-of-Gunshot-Injury.pdf DEVELOPED BY Best MSWPrograms.com N NOWSOURCING nytimes.com/2017/06/13/upshot/what-an-algorithm-reveals-about-life-on-chicagos-high-risk-list.html aclu.org/blog/privacy-technology/surveillance-technologies/amazons-face-recognition-falsely-matched-28 smithsonianmag.com/innovation/artificial-intelligence-is-now-used-predict-crime-is-it-biased-180968337 nist.gov/news-events/news/2019/12/nist-study-evaluates-effects-race-age-sex-face-recognition-software washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/police-are-using-software-to-predict-crime-is-it-a-holy-grail-or-biased-against-minorities/2016/11/17/525a6649-0472-440a-aae1-b283aa8e5de8_story.html IFORNIA THE CAL REn