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Potential CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel reserves and cumulative emissions by Scenario to 2050.

Figure 3.5 Potential CO, emissions from fossil-fuel reserves and cumulative emissions by scenario to 2050 2 000 Additional emissions: If remaining reserves combusted 1 600 New Policies Scenario 1 200 450 Scenario: Z Emissions captured and stored 800 Netemissions 400 Coal Oil Gas

Potential CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel reserves and cumulative emissions by Scenario to 2050.

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--- Existing carbon reserves and energy infrastructure lock-in ---- The energy sector has always devoted considerable resources to finding, and then proving up, fossil-fuel reserves in the expectati... on that they will one day be commercialised. The extent to which these reserves _ which can be regarded as carbon reserves, that is fossil-fuel reserves expressed as CO2 emissions when combusted_ are actually consumed and the CO2 emissions released differs by fuel and scenario, according to the nature and intensity of the climate policies adopted. In our 450 Scenario, more than two-thirds of current proven fossil-fuel reserves are not commercialised before 2050, unless carbon capture and storage (CCS) is widely deployed.6 More than 50% of the oil and gas reserves are developed and consumed, but only 20% of today's coal reserves, which are much larger (Figure 3.5). Of the total coal- and gas-related carbon reserves, 3% are consumed in CCS applications where the CO2 emissions are stored underground. In our less stringent New Policies Scenario, there is higher consumption of fossil fuels but at the price of failing to achieve the 2 °C trajectory. Even in the absence of any further action on climate change, not even those allowed for in the New Policies Scenario, around 60% of world coal reserves would remain underground in 2050. The profile of the existing global energy infrastructure (including facilities under construction) means that four-fifths (550 gigatonnes [Gt] CO2) of the total volume of CO2 emissions that the energy sector is allowed to emit under a 2 °C trajectory up to 2035 are already locked-in simply by the assumption that it will continue to operate over its normal economic life. Assuming no large shifts in relative fuel prices or technological breakthroughs, the emissions expected to come from this infrastructure could only be avoided if policies were introduced which had the effect of causing its premature retirement or costly refurbishment. Around half of the lockedin emissions originate from the power sector and 22% from industry, as the facilities in these sectors typically have a long life. The share of power generation in total locked-in emissions is highest in India, at 60%, closely followed by China, Russia and the United States. In India and China, this is because the electricity sector relies to a relatively large extent on recently installed coal-fired power plants, which are set to remain in operation for decades, while in the United States, large (relatively old) coal power plants currently lock-in a considerable volume of emissions. The share of locked-in emissions for industry in China is around 30%, twice the level of that in the European Union: China's industry is dominated by the iron and steel and cement sub-sectors, which have a relatively young age profile, indicating continued operation well into the future.