Climate Change: Implications for Buildings

Climate Change - Everyone's Business Implications for Buldings - Key Findings from the Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPCC) Fith Assessment Report (AR5) cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipce bple.eu gpbn.org wbcsd.org Building for a low-carbon future Effective policies can lead to buildings and wider settlements that are climate resilient and use energy efficiently, so curbing the rise in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. There is potential for energy savings of 50-90% in existing and new buildings. In 2010, buildings accounted for 32% of global final energy use. In 2010, buildings accounted for 19% of all GHG emissions. co, emissions in the building sector could double or triple by 2050. BUILDING-AS-USUAL BUILDING FOR THE FUTURE Buildings' energy use in developed countries is generally wasteful and inefficient. Developing countries risk locking into the same pattern as their economies and populations growricher. Widespread implementation of best practices and technologies could see energy use in buildings stabilise or even fall by 2050. Many mitigation options promise multiple co-benefits. Carbon Efficiency Warming and Energy Demand 9 At present, electricity is the main form of energy used for cooling and appliances, while fossil fuels are used for heating. Changing fuels and energy supply infrastructure to buildings will be needed to deliver large emissions cuts even if end-use demand falls. 10 More than 2 billion Energy-Efficient Technology Higher temperatures will drive changes in climate- related energy demand. In low-income countries, rising wealth will be the main 1 High-performance building envelopes. igh-performance insulation with and windows, and high indoor air quality. 2 Energy-efficient appliances, efficient lighting, and Heating, Ventilation and Air-Conditioning (HVAC). 3 Improved building automation and control systems that respond to changing conditions. 'Daylighting'. Using smart meters and grids to modulate supply in real time. Demand driver of increasing energy demand, principally for air conditioning and transport. Pressures people currently lack access to modern energy carriers. The evolution of their energy provision will drive trends in buildings-related emissions. Under business-as-usual projections, use of energy in buildings globally could double or even triple by 2050. Drivers include billions of people acquiring adequate housing and 4 Evaporative cooling and solar-powered desiccant dehumidification. Average COa reduction potential: 20-45% of baseline access to electricity. More wealth, more urban dwellers and a higher Average CO, reduction potential: 20-45% of ba seline global population will also raise dem and. 22 000 Energy in the Home System Infrastructure Traditional large appli ances account for most Efficiency household electricity consumption, yet their share is falling fast. Service Demand 5 Know-how exists on retrofitting and how to build very low-and zero-energy buildings, often at little marginal investment cost or manageable payback times. 6 Passive building designs that minimise or eliminate the need for mechanical Reduction Electronic entertainment and communications 11 Energy use increases projected for buildings relate mainly to higher demand for energy services, driven by people moving out of poverty and changing patterns of consumption. Potential means to deliver Impacts and Risks equipment now account for more than 20% of residential electricity use in most countries. Many buildings are vulnerable to impacts of climate change. heating, cooling and ventilation. 7 Deep retrofits of existing buildings have brought 50-90% energy savings. 8 Integrated Design Processes prioritise energy perfomance-and-use factors through building design, construction and commissioning. demand reduction include These include increased carbon pricing, personal carbon trading. property taxation related to building Co, emissions, progressive appliance standards and building codes with absolute consumption limits. precipitation, thawing pemafrost, and extreme KEY ISSUES weather-related events such as wildfires, severe storms and floods. ENERGY INSECURITY Without investment in EXTREME WEATHER improved res ilience, this vulnerability is destined O DROUGHT Average CO2 reduction potentiat: to increase. Average Co, reduction potential: 30-70% of baseline GLOBAL WARMING 20-40% of baseline i HUMAN BEHAVIOUR