Picture Perfect

PICTURE PERFECT Is it possible to predict the best picture Oscar winner with the crystal ball of data visualisation? We've scrutinised, sifted and sorted 50 years of winners and nominees to find out. BEST PICTURE WINNERS NOMINEES 1963 - 2012 NOMINEES 2013 MOST PERFECT 2013 NOMINEE PLAYING THE LONG GAME What's the optimum length of a best picture winner? Dallas 12 Years a Slave Captain Phillips American Hustle The Wolf of Wall Street Gravity Philomena Nebraska Buyers Club Hег 91mins 98mins 115mins 116mins 126mins 134 mins 134 mins 138mins 180mins RUNTIME OF BEST PICTURE NOMINEES AND WINNERS 1hr 2hr 93mins Annie Hall Oscar winners and nominees are both also longer on average than other films in the last 50 years 3hr All films 106mins 141mins 201mins - Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King Nominees 130mins Optimum length for Oscar success Winners 141mins ODD COUPLES Eight previous winning pictures have centred on a pair of mismatched characters My Fair Lady (1964), The Sound of Music (1965), Annie Hall (1977), Driving Miss Daisy (1989), Forrest Gump (1994), Titanic (1997), American Beauty (1999), Million Dollar Baby (2004) Philomena TIMING IS EVERYTHING What's the best time of year to release a best picture contender? 19 DEC Most common release date for winners PERCENTAGE OF NOMINEES AND WINNERS RELEASED PER MONTH JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 40% No films released in January have ever won 30% 20% 10% Release date doesn't affect a film's winning chances, but all of this year's contenders were released in the last three months of 2013, keeping them fresh in judge's memories when nominations were announced in January 4 Oct 11 Oct 18 Oct 1 Nov 15 Nov 22 Nov 13 Dec 18 Dec 25 Dec Gravity 12 Years Dallas Captain Phillips The Wolf of Wall Street Nebraska Philomena American Hustle Her a Slave Buyers Club HAIRY STORY Moustachioed leading men appear in seven past winners The Godfather (1972), The Sting (1973), Gandhi (1982), Shakespeare in Love (1988), Driving Miss Daisy (1989), Dances with Wolves (1990), The Artist (2011) Н Her Dallas Buyers Club AUDIENCE PARTICIPATION What do critics and audiences think of this year's best picture nominees compared to previous winners? % RATING ON ROTTEN TOMATOES.COM The Godfather (1972) is the highest rated Oscar winner Critics - 100% Audience - 98% 100% Forrest Gump O Crash Gladiator FAVOURED BY AUDIENCES CONSENSUS LINE- Rocky (1976) is the worst-rated winner by audiences Titanic but also the most profitable, grossing 20,455% of its budget Critics - 92% Audience - 68% 60% 100% CRITIC SCORE Critics and audiences both rate Oscar winners highly but audiences are more likely to mark down losing films, widening the gap between winners and nominees Captain Phillips 12 years a slave American The Wolf of Wall Street Dallas Hustle Gravity Nebraska Philomena Her Buyers Club AUDIENCE 79% 83% 85% 88% 91% 92% 92% 93% 94% CRITIC 93% 77% 97% 91% 92% 93% 97% 94% 93% DARK MAITER Only two other black and white films have won since the 1960s Schindlers List (1993), The Artist (2011) Nebraska WINNING STREAK Which other awards do past best picture winners usually win? THIS YEAR'S NOMINEES OTHER MAJOR FILM AWARD WINS % of best picture winners that also win... Directors Guild of America Strongest predictor 82% Only 4 best pictures have also won the 'grand slam' of all 6 key awards: American Beauty (1999) The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003) Slumdog Millionaire (2008) Argo (2012) Producers Guild of America 71% Screen Actors Guild 59% Critics' Choice 53% Only two have won best picture without winning any: Oliver! (1968) Braveheart (1995) Golden Globe 48% BAFTA 40% Palme d'Or Weakest predictor No film has ever won 0% both the best picture Oscar and the Palme d'Or 12 Years a Slave 4 wins THIS YEAR'S NOMINEES OTHER OSCAR NOMINATIONS Н % of best picture winners also nominated for... Directing 94% Only 3 films have won best picture without a best director nomination: Writing Strongest predictors 94% Argo (2012) Gladiator (2000) Film editing 86% Driving Miss Daisy (1989) Leading actor 66% Sound 66% Cinematography 64% Music 62% Supporting actor Actor awards are a stronger predictor than actresses: 60% Makeup / costume Winners with: 52% Production design 52% 88% 52% Supporting actress 34% at least at least one actor one actress Leading actress 30% Weakest predictor nomination nomination American Hustle and Gravity 10 total nominations each WEIGHTY SUBJECT Only one previous Oscar-winning film has featured a woman stranded in outer space (although it featured a man-eating extraterrestrial too...) Alien (for Visual Effects, 1979) Gravity BEST PICTURE THE WINNING FORMULA According to fifty years of Oscar data, which film should come out on top this year? In running for Palme d'Or at Cannes (lengthens Oscar odds) Around Highest audience At least 8 other Oscar nominations Best picture winner in 4 other Nominated for directing, writing & editing 140mins long score key awards Gravity The Wolf of Wall Street Philomena Captain Phillips Dallas 12 Years Her Nebraska Buyers Club a Slave AMERICAN HUSTLE Sources: BAFTA, BFCA, DGA, Evan Appleby, Festival de Cannes, HFPA, IMDB, PGA, Rotten Tomatoes, SAG, The Oscars (Walt Disney Company), Wikipedia. Award of Merit statuette © A.M.P.A.S.O BBC Ojibstudio for CULTURE AUDIENCE SCORE FAVOURED BY CRITICS 80