Transcribed
Sri lanka - Current account components
3.21.10 Current account components Exports Income balance Imports Current transfers Services balance Current account % of GDP 40_ 20_ 0. -20_ -40_ 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Forecast Sources: Central Bank of Sri Lanka. Annual Report 2011. http://www.cbsl.lk; ADB estimates. 3.21.10 Current account components Exports Income balance Imports Current transfers Services balance Current account % of GDP 40_ 20_ 0. -20_ -40_ 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Forecast Sources: Central Bank of Sri Lanka. Annual Report 2011. http://www.cbsl.lk; ADB estimates.
Sri lanka - Current account components
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Average inflation in 2013 is expected to be 7.5%, little improved from
a year earlier, despite the base effect from the energy price adjustments in
2012 disappearing in the second quarter 2013, expe...
cted declines in global
commodity and oil prices, and expected exchange rate stabilization at
current levels. Gas prices were adjusted upward by 2% and diesel by 5%
in the last week of February 2013. Further price increases are required
to address the current operating losses of the Ceylon Electricity Board
(CEB), and to pay down debts to banks that funded previous years’ losses.
The estimated loss was about Rs89 billion (equal to 1.2% of GDP) for
Ceylon Petroleum and Rs65 billion (0.9%) for the CEB. An increase in the
national minimum wage is a risk that could top up inflationary pressures.
Monetary policy will therefore need to remain tight to limit second-round
effects and anchor inflation expectations in 2013.
External demand is expected to recover gradually in 2013.
Merchandise exports are projected to grow at a slow 4% in 2013 and 5% in
2014. Meanwhile, worker’s remittances will continue to expand rapidly.
Services exports are expected to be boosted by growing tourism, the
further development of business process outsourcing, and higher income
from trade and shipping services partly derived from the opening of new
port facilities.
Revenues from these items will allow imports to expand by 6% in
2013 and 10% in 2014 without widening the current account deficit as a
share of GDP (Figure 3.21.10). Normal weather would increase the share
of hydropower generation and contain the oil bill. The current account
deficit is thus expected to be 5.0% of GDP in 2013 and 4.5% in 2014,
both improvements on the estimated 5.8% in 2012. It is assumed that the
current account deficit will continue to be financed by capital inflows.
Sources:
Central Bank of Sri Lanka.
Annual Report 2011.
http://www.cbsl.lk; ADB estimates
Source
http://www.cbsl.lkCategory
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