Solar Blues

Solar Blues Household PV subsidies have had only a minor impact on household bills so why the political angst? Feed In tariffs are expected to add 1% to average tariffs in 2013 1 Current Feed In Tariffs As at January 20122 Australian Residential Electricity Prices 1 25c/kWh Commenced Januory 2012 Net Model VIC Contributors to 2013-14 35.00, For systems connected batween 1 October 2011 and 30 September 20o13 Payment until September 2016 Net Mode! Electricity Price Increase 30.56 c/kWh 16c/kWh Wholesale 41% Feed in tariff 0.26c/kWh 30.00 13% Retal SA Green Schemes 1.45c/kWh L Transmission 2.23 c/kWh 3% Green Schemes 25.00- 22.40 c/kWh 6-8c/kWh Nate negotioted with retailer Nat and Gross Mode! 35 Feed in tariff - Distribution 11.15 c/kWh 20.00- NSW c/kWh - 6% Transmission +8c/kWh (nominal) 15.00- Closed on 31 May 2011 Previously 45.7c/kWh Gross Model Closed 10.00- E Whelesale 11.00 ckWh 37% Distribution ACT E Retail 437 c/kWh Wholesale, network and carbon price are driving electricity retail price 22.648c/kWh Commenced 2011 Net Mode! 0.00 2010-11 2013-14 Carbon TAS Closed Closed on 1 August 2011 Previously 20c/kWh 19.77c/kWh 44c/kWh WA Net Mode! NT QLD Net Model Net Modal Solar economics still rely on subsidies 3 Working Couple Family Retirees Annual Consumption = 6,500MWH Annual Consumption = 8,500MWh Annual Consumption = 4,500MWh juler 12h 24h boh 12h 24h 12h 24h -With Corbon Tax 11y With Carbon Tax 11y With Carbon Tax 13y Average State FIT 12y Avarage State FIT 12y Average State FIT 14y Nil FIT or Tax 18y Nil FIT or Tax 18y Nil FIT or Tax 23y Years Years Years 20 10 20 10 20 The FiT effect is to turbo charge installations providing supply when demand is highest Small Solar Installations 5 ECON101: Solar Supply and Grid Demand 6 Number of Demand Installations 600,000- (MW) Potential impact of maximum household solar PV 27,000 NT 3.7 MW on NEM demand profile -TAS 8.7 MW NT 1.500 TAS 5,100 ACT 20.0 MW 500,000 FACT 8,700 2011 E sA 134.9 MW SA 64,700 Small Solar WA 145.4 MW 400.000 Generation WA 71,300 23,000 2020 VIC 1523 MW ViC 82,900 2025 300,000 - 21,000 QLD 268.7 MW 2030 NSW 331.1 Mw 200,000 134,200 2035 19,000 The saturation of PV systems in owner-occupied dwellings is expected to grow from around 6% ot the end of 2010 to 27% by 2019/20.7 100,000 17,000 NSW 153,100 15,000 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 0:00 3:00 6:00 9:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 0.00 Sources: 1. Corbon Scenario Prices, AEMC Futurs Retoil Elactricity Price Movemants, Nov 2011 2. Food-in toriffs, Parliamentory Librory. Parliament of Australo Web Site Exigency estimotes of housshold damond and profiles. Paybock periods were estimated bosed on solor production, stonding tariffa and FIT by stote 4. CEC Consumer Guide to Buying Household Solor Ponels, August 2011 5. ORER Doto to September 2011 6. Exigency analysis bosed on annualised instollation rote of 200,000 1.5kW solor PV. future profiles normalised to 2011 NEM overage demand profile, NEM growth rote ossumed of 2% bosed on ABARE forecosts 7. AEMC, Interim Report, Impoct of the enhonced Ranewable Energy Torget on anergy morkets. 25 November 2011. Note ABS reports that in 2005, there were o totol of 7.8 million households in Austrolio. By 2031, the number of households is projected to grow to between 11.4 and 11.8 million Authors: Bruce Macfarlane, Adrian Palmer, Stuart Allinson www.exigency.com.au O 2012 Exigency Management, All Rights Reserved ex•i•gen•cy/'eksijansē/ Noun: An urgent need or demand Exigency See things differently Demand Profile (Normalised) Payback