London Housing Crisis: Past, Present & Future

HITCHCOCK HK &KING London Housing Crisis i i ủ ủ ủ I II Historic and projected London population 1801 - 2031 In 1801, London's population was just over a million. 12 The population grew steadily during the 19th and start of the 20th century, and by 1931 the average size of a household in London was almost four people. 10 8 By the Second World War in 1939, the population had reached 8.6 million, and the 6 average size of households was falling. 4 including deindustrialisation and suburbanisation policies meant the population fell for several decades, bottoming out in the 1980s. After the war, factors 2 1801 1821 1841 1861 1881 1901 1921 1941 1961 1981 2000 2021 Average household size in London fell for decades but has recently increased again, reaching 2.48 in 2011 4.0 3.5 1 During the 1990s, the population of London grew by 440,000, with the average household size at 2.38 3.0 people per household. 2.5 The pace of population growth quickened further still in the 2000s, and by 2011, the number of 2.0 households in London had 1.5 grown to 3.3 million - 0.8 million higher than 30 years prior in 1981. Average 1.0 household sizes rose to 2.48 people per household. 0.5 0.0 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 Outer London Households Inner London Households Average household size Change in population and number of households 2001-2011 1 London's population 18% increased much faster than the number of households over the last 16% decade, particularly in Outer London. 14% 2 By 2012, an additional 930,000 people were living in the city, with the population hitting a new high of 8.3 million. The average household size increase was not 12% 10% 8% anticipated, and happened simply due to the inability to match demand with supply. 6% 4% 2% 0% Inner London Outer London London Total Rest of England Population Change Household Change Cumulative growth in number of jobs, people and homes in London since 2002 1 people and the number of homes have grown in line Overall, the number of 16% 14% with one another over the past decade, but the employment and subsequent population growth during the past 10 years have outgrown the housing supply which has remained somewhat 12% 10% 8% subdued in the recession's aftermath. 6% 4% 2% 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 People Jobs Homes Annual housing requirement 1015 - 2035 by tenure and size Around 49,000 new homes are required every year in London over the next two decades, due to rapid population growth and the existing backlog of need. 1 London needs: Approximately 48,840 homes built yearly between 2015 and 2035. 48% should be market homes, 32% social rent or Affordable Rent, and 20% intermediate according to SHMA estimates. • The population is expected to grow by a million between 2011 and 2021 if housing supply meets demands, reaching around 10 million by 2031. If, however, not enough housing is built, population growth is likely to be lower. 5,000 10,000 15,000 20.000 25,000 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4+ Bedrooms What's affect the building of new homes? House Bill • New affordable starter Though this is a serious issue, the figures A number of factors are The house bill looks to local councils to create and homes affecting the building of new homes in London, including the following: deliver local plans, ensuring they are instrumental in the demonstrate that there • Automatic planning has been a serious permission in principle on brownfield sites • Planning reforms to creation of scope within the house building industry; indeed since 2010, there has been a visible, if modest, government's plan to deliver 1 million homes • Under-resourcing in the planning system • A shortage of land • High requirement for affordable housing • CIL • Securing funding for developments • Lack of demand from buyers by 2020. support small builders • elling off high value The plan is integral to the government's pledge to deliver security, stability and opportunity to the people of Britain. Further ploys and proposals spelled out by the bill include: vacant assets improvement in the number of houses being built, bringing the housing market back from its lowest point during the recession. HITCHCOCK &KING CONTACT HK Telephone: 020 8012 8032 · Website: hitchcockandking.co.uk · Email: [email protected] Population (millions) Market Intermediate Social rent