Growth Projections for Russia for 2015 and 2016

GROWTH PROJECTIONS WORLD BANK GROUP FOR RUSSIA FOR 2015 AND 2016 The revised i outlook is articulated through 3 scenarios: a baseline, upper- and lower-bound ones, which are based on different oil price assumptions. UPPER-CASE BASELINE SCENARIO LOWER-CASE 2015 $78 2015 2015 $85 0.0% |-0.7% $70 -1.5% 2016 2016 2016 $90 $80 0.3% $72 0.3% 0.5% In 2015 and 2016, a shrinking economy and stagnating real wages will keep households in a crisis mode. In 2015, consumption growth In 2015, consumption growth contracts for the first time comes to a standstill and investment growth contracts, since 2009 and investment growth continues to decline due to uncertainty and restric- ted access to international but less than in 2014. Investments would contract In 2016, investment and con- sumption begin to contribute positively to growth again. more pronounced in 2015 before rebounding cautiously in 2016. financial markets. During 2016, potential positive dynamics in consumption could revive investment growth. 3.0 GDP GROWTH PROJECTIONS UPPER-CASE SCENARIO 2.0 BASELINE SCENARIO LOWER-CASE SCENARIO 1.0 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.7% -1.0 -1.5% -2.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Learn more at http://www.worldbank.org/russia