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Roadmap Energy Transition

Roadmap Energy Transition 2050 About this roadmap This Roadmap focuses on long term trends, not on hypes. In order to create a relevant overview, in-depth research was conducted and interviews were held with the Board of Directors, Heads of Departments and experts in the field. This resulted in 5 corresponding dimensions, visualizing that everything within the energy transition is interconnected. STEDIN" .NET Point of view: Dutch DSO's The energy transition is going to cause major changes for all parties in the industry. How fast these developments will occur and till what extend: nobody really knows. But what we do know is that in ten to twenty years time the industry will look rather different. sion on the developments coming our way, particularly focusing on challenges for DSO's. Additionally, it wants to discuss potential positions within the still unknown landscape by focusing on new business models. And the ultimate goal is to create an energy world that serves people and planet best. Poster Roadmap Energietransitie Extened. Version 1.1 Aug 2015, Rotterdam. Part of the book "Roadmap Energy Transition" Compiled by: Marcel Nahapiet & Hannah Jansen Morrison. Business Consultancy: interviews, workshops & realisation Commissioned by: Marko Kruithof & Rick Heerink Sustainability & Innovation, Stedin. HANNAH JANSEN. n ahapiet We believe that we have to find joint solutions with the whole industry: the challenges are simply too big to solve by only one party. The goal of this Roadmap is first and foremost to create a discus- Channels: Mai Phone E-mail Site Account Management App Online Transaction Call Center Agent, Account Manager & Engineer has all data & apps at hand Internet of Things Open data Personal Dashboard ("my") Digitizing processes Structure PARTIES The structure is ever evolving. Which business models are viable Cloud Disruptive Technology Developments Accelerates European Context Google+ Supply, Demand, Storage, Flexibility Data Nest and desirable? Current NEW Powerwall Market TESLA Entries Amendment Organisation & Structure One National Aggregator Grid Operator? Consolidation of all into one? Legal obligation potentially disappears to connect to the gas grid. New Entries Update ENERGY BILL New legislative framework Integrated Energy DSO: regional DSO Supplier Metering Partie business models levelop (new) Integrated Energy Company Matching and managing flexibility Creating separate organizations Flexible Tariffs: based on supply / demand, sustainability profile, other factors. Company? The return of the integrated energy company? Telecom, Google, Data Companies Centralisation Horticultural TSO Siemens, BAM, ESRI, Industry as local aggregator Program-Resposible Parties Allocation & Imbalance Settlement Eaton, IBM, Google..? Traditional roles SUPPLIER CONSUMER Introduction OPERATOR Transition to electrical vehicle EN ERGY = Smart ProSumers HIGH 6 mln. Metropolitan Suburban & INVOLVEMENT < difference > area Rural area EVERYONE = households are Signal At what pace? Smart Grid, Smart Home, Smart Community, Smart City. customers Power Production ProSumer Relative limited option for local production. Challenge: insulation of existing houses. More options for production, storage etc. Quicker pace of energy transition compared to metropolitan area? Matcher 1 mln. Insulation HIGH current & SG Private & Business new houses PM A8 companies are 10 mln. customers Customer Key questions: How many households, companies and communities are off grid? What differences will Will corporate demand for gas remain? Solar Farm First First 100,000 zero energy houses in province of Utrecht steam grid SMART GRID > 1 mln. households are 8 mln Introduction Off Grid households producers local storage manifest between the Local steam or heat grid in industrial area SMART metropolitan and suburban / rural areas? APPLICANCES DSO SUPPLIER CUSTOMER Introduction smart meter Signal Production First HOME ENERGY signal local flexibility, supply, demand, storage MANAGEMENT Introduction off grid community SYSTEMS > 2 mln. local production >1 mln. Operator local grid Operator local grid Operator local grid PROSUMERS Electrical Vehicles Electrical Vehicles Power X % is off grid Y % is party or not (yet) off grid SC Matcher DO0123 Matar Smart Smart PM INSULATION LOW Meter Meter 1980 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050 Role & Business model: DATA through BIG DATA CAR SUPPLY OF ENERGY Data SUPPLIES AND STORES THROUGH (LOCAL) GRID System support: a.o.data based maintenance. Analytics & Predictive Modeling. • Managing supply & demand. ENERGY 0D 0123 Smart smart meter Customer& Market Meter 9 Local customized solutions (cyber) Internet security DATA OT / IT 01101011 01100001 01110100 of things Og 01100 101 operational & information technology Open E+G+H+S Local grid data © Secundary systems Electrical grid Gas grid Gas grid 9 End of gas grid? Infrastructure Steam grid ALTERNATIVE for E+G Heat grid Heat grid Local grid Steam & Heat Steam grid g ? DSO's role? NEW Phase out? Alternative / Extra grid? Soley for industrial clients, or for households as well? TRADITIONAL with connection to "A clear configuration of the central grid." backbone grid. Challenges with Off Grid. EG: financing of maintenance, part of the community opts out. This could revive the idea of a central grid and central grid operator. Security & Certification DSO operates as market custodian INFRASTRUCTURAL FOOTPRINT (supply) Greater imbalance in the grid Bottlenecks INFRASTRUCTURAL Summer Peak Due to larger fluctuations in local demand and local sustainable production of energy. in the grid FOOTPRINT Example: Data & 1,5x Custom made solutions per neighborhood, region, situation of E+G+S+H, storage, flexibility and parties. Investment of 2,000,000.- Assets Google+ TESLA Siemens, IBM, are entwined OR flexibility: manage storage, demand and supply bigger than Winter Peak to lessen the investment need. (demand) ESRI, Eaton, EDSN ... Invest with a long 40 yrs Unclear: lifespan needed of the central grid. Invest with horizon <40 yrs? X-Ү уrs Future situation: investement is term focus based on other factors WKO gecisive 2015: De cisive Moment All actors in the field have a limited period of time Why - How - What positioning to choose and create a role - with the corresponding products & services - in the new energy landscape. That period starts now. Sociatal & Added Value Aggregator. Managing flexiblitiy in supply, demand, usage, storage and more. Financing, services and maintenance of local assets, tools and systems. Production, Storage, Energy Management System, Settlement, Flexibility. of all actors in the Energy Transition. Software for managing supply and demand Maintenance heat grid Consultancy local grids Maintenance Data Maintenance Production & Installation Constuction of Maintenance of New local storage Management local grids domotica local grids local grids REDEFINITION 오 Possible BUSINESS of the role of Business Models MODELS Production & Production of DSO Maintenance solar panels local storage For DSO's and all other actors in the new role & 오오오 오오오 т energy business of no business model Product development for private & business Added value of prosumers TRADITIONAL services of a Connecting customer to E+G grid Support & Maintenance of E+G grid Managing processes regarding E+G grid Grid operator retains its GRID OPERATOR DSO fulfills a certain role till other actors in the market are able to take on the role. DSO fulfills a certain role till other actors in the market is slowly declining are able to take on the role. traditional role which slowly declines |HANNAH Dahapiet JANSEN. involvement ...... 0000 return point

Roadmap Energy Transition

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The energy transition is going to cause major changes for all parties in the industry. How fast these developments will occur and till what extend: nobody really knows. But what we do know is that in ...

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Marcel Nahapiet & Hannah Jansen Morrison

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