2015 Events to Watch in Emerging Markets

FRONTIER STRATEGY GROUP 2015 EVENTS TO WATCH IN EMERGING MARKETS Contingency planning capabilities are critical to global performance. These disruptive events are predicted to present huge risks and opportunities to companies with an international footprint in 2015. EVENTS BY REGION 1 & 2 3. 4 KEY 8756 EFFECT ON BUSINESS • Positive 10 9. ● Negative O Mixed Effect GLOBAL 1. Extreme Currency Volatility 2. Energy Price Correction MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA 7. Iran Rapid Market Expansion 8. Middle East & North Africa (MENA) Shipping Disruption LATIN AMERICA 9. Brazil Recession 10. Venezuela Economic Collapse ASIA PACIFIC 4. Chinese Financial Crisis 5. India Reforms in Limbo EUROPE 3. Eurozone Austerity Woes 6. Asia Territorial Disputes Escalate VELOCITY, LIKELIHOOD & IMPACT VELOCITY How quickly will the Extreme Currency Volatility Energy Price scenario impact the business? Correction Rapid Iran Brazil Market Recession Opening KEY Chinese BUBBLE SIZE Financial represents relative business impact of the MENA event Crisis Shipping Disruption Asia Territorial Venezuela Eurozone Economic Disputes India Austerity Collapse Escalate Reforms in Backlash Limbo LIKELIHOOD How likely is the scenario to occur in the next year? KEY TAKEAWAYS Energy Prices China Iran A failure by the Chinese authorities Cheaper energy wll yield higher The possible removal of economic margins for multinationals but budget crunch for oil exporters. As global energy prices trend lower through 2015, we will see: to prevent bad debt from creating a sanctions that hold back Western collapse in shadow banking and business investment would open improve the creditworthiness of up: state-owned enterprises would create: Access to untapped domestic • Increased emerging-market demand for Western MNCS · Additional oil revenue to ·A liquidity crunch • Slowing growth · Economic decline among consumer and business disposable income · Governments in oil-exporting markets reduce spending support government spending and ramp up production commodities exporters · Reduced outbound Chinese investment PLANNING FOR DISRUPTION 2.1x 8/13 Executives who prepare for disruptive 8 out of 13 disruptive events predicted by FSG's 2014 Events to Watch last year market events deliver 2.1x more market share growth than other MNCS. materialized. Prepare your business for high impact surprises. Contact FSG today. FRONTIER STRATEGY GROUP www.frontierstrategygroup.com | @FrontierStrtGrp | [email protected] y in O BLOG