Russian Economic Report 32

THE WORLD BANK IBRD . IDA | WORLD BANK GROUP SEPTEMBER 2014 POLICY UNCERTAINTY RUSSIA ECONOMIC REPORT 32 CLOUDS MEDIUM-TERM PROSPECTS Three Development Scenarios > OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO RECOVERY Recovery assumes an end to geopolitical tensions and a lifting of all sanctions by the end of 2014. > BASELINE SCENARIO STAGNATION Stagnation due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and continued sanctions. > PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO RECESSION Geopolitical tensions with higher intensity lead to a prolonged low-level recession. 3. Growth Outlook 2016 2013 2015 2% THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL RISKS TO 2014 OPTIMISTIC RUSSIA'S MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK BASELINE Structural reform inertia combined with PESSIMISTIC high policy uncertainty are the deciding 0% Russia's growth outlook, percent factors for Russia's outlook. -2% Poverty Forecast 13% Poverty rate in Rušsia PROSPECTS FOR POVERTY PESSIMISTIC REDUCTION ARE LIMITED li 11% BASELINE Continuously high food and service inflation and stagnating or declining OPTIMISTIC real incomes will affect negatively further poverty reduction. 9% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 DOWNLOAD FULL REPORT AT WWW.WORLDBANK.ORG/RUSSIA