Class project

Population prediction for 2020, in millions Women 100+ I Men 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau Age 4 3 1 4 Japan's weight of the ancestors Japan holds a reverence for its elders and a suspicion of outsiders more so than many western cultures. Writer Ross Douthat and others worry that the combination of that culture, along with a developed-world decline in marriage and parenting, spell doom or dystopia for the tiny-yet-crowded, fragile country, battered by an earthquake, tsunami and near-nuclear plant meltdown. But what if those fears are filtered through traditional concepts based on the U.S. nuclear family of the 1950s? While the weight of generations bears down, Japan has the opportunity to lead the world in redefining old age and the lifestyle choices of women. And perhaps its declining population will encourage it to open its doors wider to workers and even its own young workers who may have moved away for a time. A crowded country Density in Japan in 2005 was 337 people per square kilometer, slightly higher than the U.S. state of Massachusetts, according to the United Nations World Popula- tions Prospects Report. It's slightly denser than India. Sendai Between 1955 anf 1989, land prices in the six largest cities increased 15,000 percent. The country covers 143,619 square miles, slightly less than California. 1.41 Average number of children per Japanese woman, 2000. 1.21 SOURCE: Japan Statistics Bureau Average number of children per People per square kilometer Japanese woman, 0 to 2011. 100 to Osaka Tokyo Fukuoka Nagoya 200 to Fukushima, location of nuclear 300 to 400 to plant problems after earthquake 500 to and tsunami 1,000 to 5,514 Gender, work and unemployment Japanese suicide vs. U.S. homicide: The percentage of women in the workforce grows slowly, and economic downturns hit men in the workforce more severely. Comparing suicide rates in Japan, by gender, and homicide rates in the U.S., per 100,000, between 1990 and 2009 Percentage 50 Per 100,000 40 40 Male suicides Women in the workforce, 30 18-49 30 Female suicides Male unemployment, 18-49 10 10 Female unemployment, 18-49 U.S. homicides 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009 SOURCES: World Health Organization, U.S. FBI 50000 Gross income: 1962-2011 1982: U.S. and Japanese recession 2006-2009 40000 1997: Asian financial crisis 1997 and 2002 stagnation 2002: Global recession, following the dot-com bubble. 2006-2009: Domestic debt troubles followed by global recession March 2011:Tsunami and earthquake, not reflected in these numbers doubledip 30000 20000 1982 dip 10000 SOURCE: World Health Organization Economic attitudes: Declining hope? Traditionally, Japanese workers have been known for a collectivist commitment to the larger whole, often shown by a lifetime devotion to a particular company and through long work hours. The economic challenges for Japan in recent years, however, could introduce dissonance in that centuries-old culture as more workers hold part-time jobs (defined as less than 35 hours) and as companies cut short lifetime commitments. Pew Research Center numbers show changing economic hope during several recent years. How would ou 2002 2008 2009 2010 2011 describe the current economic situation in Japan: Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? Very good Somewhat Somewhat Very Don't know/re- good bad bad fused And over the next 12 2002 2008 2009 2010 2011 months do you expect the economic situa- tion in our country to improve a lot, improve a little, remain the same, worsen a little or worsen a lot? Improve Remain Worsen Improve a little Worsen Don't know/re- a lot the same a little a lot fused SOURCE: Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Is divorce a factor? "Fall seven times, stand up eight." "Constant rainfall The numbers, per 1,000: strengthens the foundation." 2002: 290 2009: 253 - Japanese proverb The divorce rate peaked in 2002, with many wives of "salarymen" divorcing long-time husbands toward the ends of their careers, after children were born. Concerns about this rate's effect on population might be misplaced. Source: BBC: "Japan retired divorce rate soars," 2006 - Japanese proverb LO 20 20