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Zambia's Jobs Challenge Visualised

ZAMBIA'S JOBS CHALLENGE REALITIES ON THE GROUND THE ISSUE of jobs is important to all Zambians. People care about jobs because earnings from work are generally the biggest share of their incomes. For DISCUSSIONS about how to create jobs and reduce unemployment pervade the media, policy documents and debates. In order for these discussions to be informed and relevant, it is poor Zambians, improving labor earnings could be the route out of poverty. important to understand the realities on the ground... In the 2013 Afrobarometer survey “unemployment" topped the list of the most important problems facing Zambia that the government should address. THE BIG PICTURE RURAL (FIGURES REPRESENT THOUSANDS) 478 AGRICULTURE URBAN 3,042 762 TOTAL POPULATION 13,020 INFORMAL EMPLOYED 192 4,574 NONFARM SELF-EMPLOYMENT 762 WORKING AGE POPULATION FORMAL NONPUBLIC SECTOR UNEMPLOYED 7,021 425 307 WAGE EMPLOYMENT 770 FORMAL PUBLIC SECTOR LABOR FORCE 4,998 272 ZAMBIA'S CURRENT EMPLOYMENT PATTERN IS THAT OF AGRARIAN ECONOMIES TOTAL EMPLOYMENT WAGE EMPLOYMENT is small, but in line with peer EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION WAGE EMPLOYMENT shows that farming is the main occupation for Zambians. 17% countries. 3.2% MANUFACTURING NON-FARM SELF-EMPLOYMENT 68% 25% is a much bigger source of jobs than small and medium enterprises. SERVICES FARMING 1.5% MINING 17% OF EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT is largely an urban youth phenomenon. 50% 40% 30% 93% URBAN RURAL OF COMMERCE 20% ACTIVITIES 2/3 OF INDUSTRIAL 10% EMPLOYMENT 20 YEARS 35 YEARS 65 YEARS AGE YEARS The lower share of wage employment and higher share of farming characterize agrarian economies. THE POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE ARE YOUNG AND GROWING FAST ZAMBIA'S POPULATION will stay young for a long time. Zambia's population and labor force will stay young for the foreseeable future, presenting both challenges and opportunities. 2010 08 2040 70 60 TWO OUT OF THREE 50 Zambians are aged 24 or younger. 40 30 THE TOTAL POPULATION is estimated to continue growing quickly. 20 FEMALE MALE POPULATION (IN MILLIONS) 20% 10% 0% 10% 20% 140 PERCENT OF POPULATION 24.4 13 THE NUMBER OF JOB SEEKERS 2010 2030 2100 entering the market every year will double by 2030. 2010 130,000 2030 300,000 ZAMBIA IS NOT ALONE as several peer countries have young and fast growing populations. UGANDA MOZAMBIQUE ZIMBABWE RWANDA GHANA FORMAL JOBS ARE BEING CREATED SLOWLY GROWTH OF FORMAL JOBS 13% FORMAL 6% Formal TOTAL has not kept pace with GDP growth. employment is growing slowly and accounts EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BETWEEN 2005-08 FORMAL JOBS GDP for a small fraction of total (LFS 2008 data) employment. 1% ABOUT 5,000 JOBS CREATED É ACH YEAR STRUCTURAL CHANGE 100% IN THE ECONOMY has been slow. In the last 20 years the combined share of industries and services has only seen a 10% increase. 0% 2012 1994 YEARS TERTIARY SECTOR Commerce, Communication, Financial, Public Administration PRIMARY SECTOR SECONDARY SECTOR Agriculture, Fishing, Mining Manufacturing, Electricity and Utilities, Construction SO WHERE DO JOB SEEKERS GO? Due to limited job opportunities, non-wage employment absorbs the majority of new entrants to the jobs market DISTRIBUTION OF NEW ENTRANTS TO JOBS MARKET NON-WAGE EMPLOYMENT 000 YOUTH EMPLOYMENT patterns mimic those of non-youth. 66% 17% 17% RURAL YOUTH mostly take up the family vocation. NONFARM SELF- EMPLOYMENT WAGE EMPLOYMENT AGRICULTURE THE MAJORITY OF WORKING ZAMBIANS ARE POOR 62% POOR 56% POOR BEING EMPLOYED EMPLOYED UNEMPLOYED BEING AGES 36-64 AGES 36-64 UNEMPLOYED does not necessarily mean one is not poor. does not necessarily mean one is poor. THE WORKING POOR are mainly to be found in agriculture. There's a weak association between employment and poverty status. 81% OF WORKING POOR ARE IN AGRICULTURE 13% OF WORKING POOR ARE IN NONFARM SELF-EMPLOYMENT Labor earnings from work need to improve for working poor to move out of poverty. 7% OF WORKING POOR ARE IN WAGE EMPLOYMENT BASIC EDUCATION, THE FOUNDATION OF SKILLS, IS WEAK. Basic education is the foundation on which much of the later skill- ENROLMENT IN SCHOOLS building rests. has grown rapidly but outcomes are poor. ENROLMENT IN GRADES 1-12 QUALITY OF BASIC EDUCATION is poor as compared to other countries. 2.6 MILL 3.6 MILL READING MATH 2004 2010 But roughly 30 percent of youth have no education at all or have not completed the primary level. RANKED 13 OUT OF 14 SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AFRICAN COUNTRIES RANKED 14 OUT OF 14 SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AFRICAN COUNTRIES 30% AND ACCESS TO BASIC EDUCATION IS UNEQUAL EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES POOR, RURAL YOUTH, AND GIRLS have the odds stacked against them. for youth depend on opportunities. A rural girl with little education from a poor household has over 90% likelihood of ending up farming whereas an urban and educated boy from a nonpoor family has only a 2% likelihood of doing the same. Learning outcomes are poorer for these groups. Half of youth who dropped out before S completing school identify financial constraints as the main reason. AGRICULTURE NONFARM SELF-EMPLOYMENT WAGE JOB 100% Girls face steeper barriers to staying in school. 75% 50% EDUCATION ENROLMENTS 25% are skewed in favor of the rich, particularly for secondary and tertiary education. 0% MALE with some postsecondary education, from a nonpoor household in an urban area FEMALE with no education, or incomplete primary, from a poor household in a rural area SCHOOL ENROLMENT BASIC SCHOOL SECONDARY SCHOOL Those who are poor, rural or female are likely to have strikingly worse employment TERTIARY SCHOOL 0% 50% 100% outcomes. POOREST QUINTILE QUINTILE 4 QUINTILE 2 QUINTILE 3 RICHEST QUINTILE PUBLIC SECTOR IS A PREFERRED EMPLOYER THE PUBLIC SECTOR HIGHER WAGES AND JOBS SECURITY employs a much higher proportion of those with tertiary education. make the pubic sector a preferred employer. For a given level of education, location 1 (rural/urban), gender, and age, public sector pays 17% higher wages than the private sector. 100% Parastatal wages are much higher compared to the rest of the public sector. 50% higher than private sector wages. TERTIARY EDUCATION SENIOR AND JUNIOR SECONDARY SCHOOL PRIMARY SCHOOL Youth could be getting encouraged to pursue university degrees and wait out for jobs with the public sector. PRIMARY INCOMPLETE OR NO EDUCATION 0% PUBLIC SECTOR PRIVATE SECTOR SUMMARY: THE REALITIES OF THE JOBS CHALLENGE AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS CHALLENGE POLICY IMPLICATIONS Large numbers of job seekers are entering the jobs market each year, while a very limited i0 Improve environment for the private number of urban jobs are being created. sector to create jobs faster. There are a large number of working poor who may never move into higher productivity jobs in their lifetime. Improve smallholder productivity, provide supportive environment for home businesses. Basic education, the foundation of skills development, is weak. Improve quality of basic education. Use targeted interventions to support the poor, rural youth and girls. Access to basic education is unequal. Incentives in the public sector could be distorting the jobs market. Ш Align public sector wages with the private sector. DO YOU HAVE AN OPINION ON THIS TOPIC? THE WORLD BANK Have your say at www.facebook.com/Thinkjobszambia This is a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit of the World Bank Country Office in Lusaka. All the above data can be found in the second edition of the Zambia Economic Brief entitled "Zambia's Jobs Challenge: Realities on the Ground". The full study as well as previous economic briefs can be found at www.worldbank.org/en/country/zambia PERCENT UNEMPLOYED PERCENT EMPLOYED PERCENT PERCENT GROWTH

Zambia's Jobs Challenge Visualised

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This is an infographic showing the realities on the ground in Zambia as regards jobs and employment. Produced by The Poverty Reduction And Economic Management Unit in the World Bank Zambia Country Off...

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Economy
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