---- Upstream Oil and Natural Gas : Revenues -----
Cumulative net revenues, i.e. gross revenues, minus operating costs, gas transport,
taxes and royalties and depreciation expenses, are projected to ...
be $47 trillion in the
450 Scenario, their level in 2035 being lower than in the New Policies Scenario, but higher
than in 2011 (Figure 3.12). Net revenues from gas grow throughout the projection period,
mainly driven by increasing demand, while net revenues from oil increase initially but peak
before 2020 and then start to decline, as demand and prices decrease. Net revenues over
the period are estimated to correspond to around a 25% return on capital.
Assuming international oil companies typically operate with 10% risk-free rates of return, and up to
20% in regions carrying a risk premium, with the average return on capital number being boosted by the
contribution of national oil companies operating in low production cost areas (based on our conservative
definition of tax rates).
---- Note: The absence of comprehensive historical data means that net revenues for previous years are
estimated by applying the same gross-to-net revenues ratio that is used for future years.
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