----Building blocks for steeper abatement post-2020-----
The implementation of assumed policy measures in the 4-for-2 °C Scenario significantly
reduces growth in global CO2 emissions from the energy sector. Global energy-related CO2
emissions continue to grow in the short term, to 32.1 Gt in 2020,25 ...
but this is only some 2%
higher than is required to put the world on track for a global temperature rise in the long
term no higher than 2 °C. Emissions stabilise after 2020 and start falling slowly, reaching
30.8 Gt in 2035, 6.2 Gt (or 17%) lower than in the New Policies Scenario (Figure 2.17).
Almost 60% of the CO2 savings in 2035 occur due to the reduced use of coal as a result
of lower electricity demand and less use of the least-efficient coal power plants. The use
of oil is also reduced, contributing 25% to overall emissions reductions, largely due to
efficiency standards in road transport and the phase-out of fossil-fuel subsidies. Natural gas
contributes another 17% to emissions reductions, due to lower electricity demand and the
phase-out of fossil-fuel subsidies. However, the use of natural gas, skill grows until 2035 in
the 4-for-2 °C Scenario, though at a reduced average annual rate, relative to 2010, of 1.1%.
It is the only fossil fuel for which demand still increases significantly over today''s levels.
These additional measures are not sufficient alone, however, to reach the 2 °C target in
the long term, as CO2 emissions are 8.8 Gt (or 40%) higher than the required level in 2035,
a level which, if realised, would represent only a 13% probability of stabilisation at 2 °C,
and a 50% likelihood of reaching 2.9 °C. In order to change course post-2020 and put the
world firmly on track consistent with a for a 50% chance of reaching the 2 °C target, further
reductions are required. Relative to the 4-for-2 °C Scenario, these additional reductions
amount to a cumulative 78 Gt through 2035.
Source : http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/index.cfm
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