World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement by sector in the 450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario
The 450 Scenario requires a rapid transformation of the power sector. In some respects it
involves only an acceleration of trends already underway, such as moving to more efficient
logies and the increased deployment of renewables, but innovation is
also required, such as the adoption of CCS technology. Overall, electricity generation in
2035 is 13% lower than in the New Policies Scenario, but CO2 emissions from the power
sector are more than 10 Gt (70%) less (Figure 1.18). Electricity demand in transport in that
year is 85% higher in the 450 Scenario than in the New Policies Scenario, but it is 17% lower
in buildings, due to more efficient appliances, heating equipment and lighting. In industry,
electricity demand is 12% lower in 2035, mainly due to more efficient motor systems.
In the 450 Scenario, the share of electricity generation from fossil fuels declines from more
than two-thirds in 2011 to one-third in 2035. Electricity generation from coal declines
to half of existing levels by 2035 and installed capacity is 1 100 GW lower than in the
New Policies Scenario (see Chapter 3 on the risk of stranded assets). In the OECD, the
greatest change in coal-fired capacity occurs in the United States, but the biggest changes
globally are in non-OECD countries, where the recent reliance on new fossil-fuel capacity
(especially coal) to meet rising demand gives way to increased use of low-carbon sources.
Natural gas is the only fossil fuel with increasing electricity generation in the 450 Scenario,
but it still peaks before 2030 and then starts to decline, ending 18% higher in 2035 than
in 2011. CCS becomes a significant source of mitigation from 2020 and saves 2.5 Gt CO2
in 2035, equivalent to around one-and-a-half times India's emissions today. In several
countries, including China and the United States, very efficient coal-fired power stations
are built up to 2020 and are retrofied with CCS in the following years. Installed global
nuclear capacity doubles by 2035 in the 450 Scenario, significantly higher than in the New
Policies Scenario, with the largest increases in China and India, and additional capacity
being installed in the United States and Europe. Electricity generation from renewables
increases almost 11 000 terawatt-hours (TWh) to 2035, with wind, hydro and solar PV growing most strongly. Renewables-based electricity generation supplies almost half the
world's electricity in 2035.
In the 450 Scenario, global transport CO2 emissions peak around 2020 but then decline,
ending 5% below 2011 levels in 2035 (2.4 Gt below the level in the New Policies Scenario
in 2035). A range of mitigation measures is incorporated in the 450 Scenario, with fuel
efficiency gains and an increase in the use of biofuels being particularly important up to
2020. Such policies are already in place in the United States, which has mandated the use
of 36 billion gallons of biofuels by 2022, and in the European Union, where the Renewable
Energy Directive requires a mandatory share of 10% renewable energy in transport by
2020. Improved efficiency becomes even more important globally after 2020, alongside
lower growth in vehicle usage in countries where subsidies are removed.
In industry, global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2035 are 5% lower than in 2011 in
the 450 Scenario, at around 5.2 Gt, 21% lower than the New Policies Scenario. Improved
energy effciency accounts for more than half the reduction in cumulative terms, with CCS
in energy-intensive industries and fuel switching also playing a role. More than 80% of the
CO2 savings in the sector in the 450 Scenario come from non-OECD countries, with China,
India and the Middle East all making notable improvements. By 2035, global emissions in
buildings are 11% lower than 2011 in the 450 Scenario, at around 2.6 Gt, with the savings
relative to the New Policies Scenario being spread relatively evenly between OECD and
non-OECD countries. Much more energy efficient buildings are adopted from around 2020
----- Indirect electricity savings in the power sector result from demand reduction in end-use sectors, while
direct savings are those savings made within the power sector itself (e.g. plant efficiency improvements).
Direct savings include heat plants and other transformation.