World electricity generation from low-carbon technologies by scenario.
---- Technology options for ambitious abatement post-2020 ----
For the required transformation of the energy sector post-2020 to achieve climate targets,
all technology options will be needed and their early availability is essential to minimise
the additional costs associated with their deployment. whi...
le deep emissions reductions
are possible if consumers were to reduce demand for energy services such as mobility or
comfort, such changes are considered unlikely and might entail lower economic activity.
The acceptable keys to the required emissions reduction are, therefore, technological
developments and ongoing improvements in efficiency.
In the power sector, for example, a profound change in the way electricity is generated is
needed post-2020. In the 4-for-2 °C Scenario, the share of low-carbon technologies including
renewables, nuclear and CCS, reaches 40% in 2020, up from 32% today, but this is still well short
of the required level of almost 80% in 2035, as reflected in the 450 Scenario (see Chapter 1).
Achieving this target will require the use of all low-carbon technologies, with the largest
contribution coming from increased use of renewables, as electricity output from hydro, wind,
biomass, solar and other renewables combined in 2035 is over 4 000 terawatt-hours (TWh).
(or almost 40%) higher than in the 4-for-2 °C Scenario (Figure 2.18). Electricity generation
from nuclear power needs to increase by almost 1 800 TWh in 2035 (or about 40%) over the
level achieved in the 4-for-2 °C Scenario. In relative terms, the largest scale-up, post-2020,
is needed for CCS, at seven times the level achieved in the 4-for-2 °C Scenario, or around
3 100 TWh in 2035, with installation in industrial facilities capturing close to 1.0 Gt CO2 in
2035. Projects in operation today in all sectors capture only 6 Mt CO2, implying a very rapid
deployment of CCS in many applications. For all low-carbon technologies, the removal
after 2020 of market and non-market barriers towards their wider adoption will require a
consistent policy effort over the next decade.
In the transport sector, a shift towards low-carbon fuels is required as improving the
efficiency of road vehicles alone will not lead to the steep reductions required after 2020
(IEA, 2012b). While natural gas and biofuels are promising alternatives to oil, their potential
to reduce emissions relative to oil is limited, either due to their carbon content (natural
gas) or questions with regard to their sustainability and conflicts with other uses for the
feedstock (biofuels). From today's perspective, high expectations fall on the deployment
of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, with their share of all PLDV sales required to rise
by above one-quarter by 2035 (as in the 450 Scenario). Such a dramatic shift away from
current sales patterns is unprecedented in global car markets. In order to attain such a
steep increase in market shares, electric vehicles need to be freely available to the mass
market at competitive costs by 2020, solutions having been identified to address issues
such as driving range (for example, fast recharging infrastructure) or other issues crucial to