Will yours be the deciding vote? Australian Election 2013

Australian Election 2013 Every vote counts, but some will matter more than others Will yours be the deciding vote? THE BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE THE MAIN CONTENDERS The party (or coalition of parties) with the majority of seats in the house forms government. In 2013, the main contendors are On 7 September 2013 Australians will go to the polls to elect the members of the Australian House of Representatives, and thereby, decide which political party will govern our nation for the next three years. Australian Labor Party lead by Kevin Rudd Coalition lead by Tony Abbott o GOVERNMENT OPPOSITION 150 seats up for grabs (one for each electorate in Australia) INDEPENDENTS & MINOR PARTIES LOYALISTS vs SWINGERS The Australian Labor Party and the Coalition both have a strong and loyal voter base, so election outcomes are usually determined by swing- ing voters. Historically, most changes in government occur when there is a large swing to one side or the other, such as in 1996 and 2007. LABOR COALITION Two party preferred vote (%) 10 20 30 40 40 30 20 10 0 2010 The two party preferred (TPP) vote often, but not always, predicts the outcome of an election. 2007 The TPP vote is the proportion of votes attracted by each of the two major parties after reallocating preferences from votes for the other candidates. 2004 2001 1998 1996 1993 1990 1987 10 20 30 40 40 30 20 10 0 EARLY INDICATORS With a previously hung parliament, two party preferred polling favouring the Coalition, the Labor Party sporting the more popular leader, opinion polling indicates that the 2013 Australian election is going to be another close race. Two party preferred vote Preferred Prime Minister Primary vote Labor Coalition Coalition Labor Abbott Rudd 52% 48% 42% 50% 35% 48% 44% 39% |46% 18-24 28% 33% 55+ 54% THE POWER TO EFFECT CHANGE Winning those all important swinging votes is critical. That's why the election campaigns of both major parties focus heavily on marginal seats - those electorates where it would only take a small number of people (less than 6%) to switch their votes for the seat be won be the other party. Where do you live? MARGINAL ELECTORATES LABOR COALITION Note - figure excludes the five electorates won by independents in 2010, two of which (Denison and Melbourne) could be considered marginal. A TRUMP CARD While those people living in marginal electorates will have a big say in who will govern our nation next, there is another large group of Australians who, collectively, could exert significant influence on the outcome. Do you have hidden powers? More than BALLOT PAPER 3 million votes are WASTED every election BALLOT BOX In 2010, for every 50 people eligible to vote, 4 did not enrol to vote, 3 didn't cast a vote, 2 incorrectly completed their ballot form or left it blank, and one person cast a donkey vote. POLLING LOCATION VСГЕ CLOSED 1.3 million 900,000 700,000 300,000 Australians Australians Australians Australians are eligible to vote cast invalid or 'informal' votes are eligible to vote, but do not cast a vote cast but are not enrolled donkey votes by incorrectly completing their form or not filling it in at all From 2002 to 2010, intentially informal votes have increased by 43% while unintentionally informal votes have decreased by 22%. Often as a form of protest, donkey voters tick the boxes in order from top to bottom. But a donkey vote is counted as a valid vote and could be critical in a marginal seat: (despite compulsary voting and the threat of financial penalties) In 1990, in Hawker, then Liberal frontbencher Chris Gallus won her first election by just 14 43% votes. Her name was listed first on the ballot. Intentionally informal votes Unintentionally informal votes 22% Holding 20% of the collective voting power of the nation, if formally cast these otherwise wasted votes could change the election outcome in even the safest of electorates! THE DECIDING VOTE Do you protest vote, cast a donkey or live in a marginal electorat Yours could be the single vote that tips either side over the balance... SOURCES LOYALIST vs SWINGERS Parliamentry education office - http://www.peo.gov.au/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_House_of_Representatives#Primary.2C_TPP_and_seat_results_since_1937 EARLY INDICATORS Nielsen (8 August 2013). "Estimates of federal voting intention and leadership approval (%)". GhostWhoVotes. THE POWER TO EFFECT CHANGE Parliamentry education office - http://www.peo.gov.au/ http://www.abc.n et.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/pert/ http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/pendulum/ A TRUMP CARD http://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/research/paper12/categories.htm http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505125_162-31144971/informal-votes-tell-of-a-doubly-disillusioned-electorate/ http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-elec- tion-2013/three-million-votes-may-go-to-waste-says-electoral-commission-20130812-2rqvg.html http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/don- key-votes-to-go-to-coalition-in-key-marginal-labor-seats/story-fn59niix-1225906291988 http://australianpolitics.com/voting/electoral-system/donkey-votes Data Visualisation © 2013 Rubrik Data Visualisation rubrik.com.au Rubrik >>> >>>> >>>> % margin at 2010 election