Uzbekistan : Supply-Side Contributions to growth, Inflation and broad money
Despite weaker external demand, the economy again performed strongly.
GDP grew by 8.2%, according to official data, driven by public investment
and private consumption. The main supply-side contributors to growth
were services, which grew by 10.4%, and industry including construction,
which grew by 8.0% (...
Industry growth was driven mainly by machinery, fuel, and
light industry. Services played a larger economic role, due to strong
performances by information and communication technology, finance,
and trade and catering. Agriculture grew by 7%, primarily reflecting a
larger cotton harvest and expanded livestock breeding.
On the demand side, private consumption rose by 6.0%, as a result of higher public sector wages and pensions, expanded remittances, and increased domestic lending. Gross fixed capital formation increased by
11.6%. (Data for total investment are not available, because there is no
information on changes in stock inventories.) Public investment rose by
16.7%, improving on the 11.3% increase in 2011, as the government further
expanded investment to support ongoing industrial modernization and
infrastructure development. Most public investment was to overhaul key
industrial sectors and construct new housing.
The government reported that inflation in 2012 remained within the official target of 7%. An alternative estimate by the International Monetary Fund is 12.9%. Inflationary pressures mainly reflected currency
depreciation, wage and pension increases, and higher administrative prices for fuel, utilities, and bread, which were instituted toward achieving
cost recovery. The central bank responded by tightening monetary policy,
especially in the second half of the year, through sales of certificates of
deposit on the open market, though the policy rate remained unchanged.
An increase in net foreign assets was offset by accumulating government
deposits, including in the Fund for Reconstruction and Development
(FRD), a sovereign wealth fund. As a result, broad money growth slowed
to 25.0% from 32.3% in 2011 (Figure 3.8.2).
Sources: State Statistics Committee; Press service of the President; ADB estimates http://www.stat.uz/en/