Asian Development Outlook 2013 - UZBEKISTAN :
The government reported foreign investment inflows of $2.5 billion,
mainly into oil and gas, petrochemicals, and automobile manufacturing.
External debt i...
s estimated to have increased modestly to 17.8% of
GDP at the end of 2012 from 17.4% at the end of 2011, as the public
investment program is increasingly being financed by foreign loans
Money supply growth is expected to remain at 25% in 2013 and 24% in
2014, as the government increases wages and pensions. Further build-up
in the central bank’s net foreign assets, at least to mid-2013, and continued
foreign exchange intervention to depreciate the local currency will tend
to raise foreign reserves. Nevertheless, the authorities are expected to
keep monetary policy tight and continue the accumulation of government
deposits and liquidity-mopping operations.
The current account surplus is forecast to shrink further, to 4.3% of
GDP in 2013 and 3.2% of GDP in 2014, as the trade surplus dwindles
Falling external demand and international prices for the country’s
main export commodities will adversely affect export performance.
The key downside risks are economic slowdown in the European Union
or the Russian Federation and, in the PRC, uncertain demand for
imports. Weaker consumer demand in these countries would suppress
trade and remittances. Merchandise exports should rise moderately, by
6.9% in 2013, before declining by 1.0% in 2014.
Merchandise imports are projected to rise gradually, by 9.1% in 2013
and 4.2% in 2014. Demand will come mostly from public infrastructure
spending and the industrial modernization program. Lower global commodity prices will reduce import payments, as will greater import controls. Early in 2013 the government adopted a decree that effectively restricted imports by imposing additional procedures and controls on a
number of consumer goods.
Figure 3.8.8 above shows that, although the
sophistication of Uzbekistan’s export basket has improved notably, it
remains far less sophisticated than that of middle-income Asian countries
such as Malaysia and the PRC.
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